Sweden sees Russian submarines in Baltic Sea almost weekly
“Russia is continuously reinforcing its presence,” Petkovic said, adding that Sweden anticipates even greater submarine activity once a ceasefire or armistice is reached in Ukraine: “You can only assess, and we do assess, that Russia will reinforce its capabilities in this region.”
The Baltic Sea has seen a rise in security incidents, including suspected drone activity, alleged sabotage of underwater infrastructure, and movements of aging oil tankers forming Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet.” Last month, a senior UK defense official noted that a Russian spy ship had entered British waters and targeted military pilots with lasers, warning of a “new era of threat” from hostile nations.
Sweden recently hosted NATO’s anti-submarine exercise Playbook Merlin 25, involving nine countries including Germany, France, and the US, to practice tracking submarines in the region’s challenging underwater terrain. Petkovic emphasized that the Baltic seabed’s steep topography provides submarines with more opportunities to hide, complicating detection efforts.
Russia is reportedly producing roughly one Kilo-class submarine per year in St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania. Petkovic described this activity as a “deliberate and constant modernization program.” He also warned that Russia’s shadow fleet, composed of civilian-flagged oil tankers transporting crude, could pose military risks if used for drone launches or covert operations: “The shadow fleet in itself is not a military problem, but the shadow fleet could affect our nations from a military perspective.”
Petkovic noted that underwater infrastructure in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania remains vulnerable due to challenging conditions such as low visibility, varying salinity, and temperature differences, with maritime routes being crucial for communication and supply.
He credited NATO’s increased vigilance with a deterrent effect, stating that since the start of Operation Baltic Sentry in January, “we haven’t seen any cable incidents in this region at all. It shows that the alliance works.”
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