AGP Executive Report

US–China Summit Prep: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng met in New York on trade and AI, floating an information-sharing mechanism as the Trump–Xi summit nears and the tariff truce expiry on Nov 10 looms. Trade & Diplomacy: ASEAN agreed to provisionally apply an upgraded trade deal (Atiga protocol) to boost intra-regional commerce despite Middle East disruptions, while ASEAN and the US endorsed a 2026–27 TIFA work plan covering digital trade, agriculture, and MSMEs. Energy & Security: Qatar’s energy leadership said LNG can’t be moved via pipelines and that LNG repairs after attacks will take years, as global chokepoint risks keep energy markets jittery. E-commerce Rules: Indonesia’s trade ministry said new e-commerce regulations must prioritize local products and require transparency for sellers and platforms. Regional Policy & Investment: Jordan’s central bank raised rates by 25 bps to curb inflation; Iraq’s Bank of Baghdad won a $25m EBRD trade-finance facility to expand cross-border funding. Local Economy & Governance: Philippines reaffirmed one-China policy while continuing economic cooperation with Taiwan, a stance experts warn could spark friction with Beijing.

ASEAN Trade Boost: Asean economic ministers agreed to provisionally apply an upgraded Atiga trade protocol among ready members, aiming to cut friction and help SMEs as the Middle East crisis disrupts supply chains. Philippines-China-Taiwan: Manila reaffirmed its One China policy but said it will keep pursuing economic and cultural cooperation with Taiwan, after China objected to a planned Cebu office. US-China Talks: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng met in New York to set up leader-level discussions on tariffs, AI, and critical minerals ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Qatar Investment Push: Qatar launched the “Doha Investment” platform to manage QIA’s domestic portfolio, expand private-sector participation, and deepen capital markets. Nigeria Rates Decision: Nigeria’s central bank faces a tough MPC call as inflation cools but petrol prices and exchange-rate pressures complicate any move toward easing. AI Infrastructure Shift: US data shows private spending on data centers and information-processing equipment overtaking housing—signaling where AI money is flowing. Qatar LNG Contingency: QatarEnergy said LNG output could return to normal within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Health Spending Focus: New Zealand First unveiled a prevention-first health plan, arguing chronic illness is draining budgets and overwhelming hospitals.

US–China Trade/AI Talks: U.S. Treasury chief Scott Bessent and China’s He Lifeng launched high-level talks in New York on AI guardrails, tariffs, and rare-earth access ahead of the Trump–Xi summit. Middle East Energy Risk: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said U.S.–Iran negotiations are deadlocked, with the Houthis’ escalation raising the odds of wider economic fallout via shipping and oil-market shocks. Europe Fiscal Pressure: France’s debt is set to hit the highest level since 1978 as deficits keep deficits elevated, renewing EU scrutiny. Pakistan Growth vs Disruption: Finance Minister Aurangzeb warned protests and sit-ins could cost Pakistan up to Rs120bn a day, even as reserves rise and the economy shifts toward growth. ASEAN Trade: ASEAN members agreed to provisionally apply an upgraded Atiga trade deal among willing states to boost regional commerce amid global disruptions. Digital Commerce Push: Qatar introduced a new e-commerce licence for approved activities online, while China–ASEAN e-commerce promotion in Nanning highlighted cross-border supply-chain deals. Food & Consumer Costs: Chile’s “completo” prices rose as recession fears mount, and Nepal tightened edible-oil quality standards to protect consumers.

Food Retail Competition: Labour says it would force Foodstuffs and Woolworths to run wholesale operations independently, aiming to cut weak wholesale pricing and give smaller grocers a fairer shot. Construction & Labour Policy: Qatar’s labour ministry held a second roundtable with unions and employers to strengthen wage protection, safety, and worker participation through new joint committees. Trade Diplomacy: Canada is optimistic about finishing a CEPA with India by year-end, with energy and nuclear supply chains in focus. China–US Talks: China’s vice premier He Lifeng will lead economic and trade consultations in the US amid tariff and AI concerns. EU–China Curbs: The EU moves to expand trade restrictions on China-linked steel and downstream products while still seeking talks, raising worries about industrial-chain disruption. Africa Trade & Finance: Ghana’s media leader urges better Anglophone–Francophone communication to unlock intra-African trade and cross-border digital finance. Local Growth Projects: Uganda’s $18bn Soroti high-value processing facility remains idle, sparking accountability questions over an operator’s failure to run the plant. Public Finance Watch: France’s debt is set to hit the highest level since 1978 as deficits keep rising, with 2027 debt projected above EU reference limits. Youth & Jobs: India’s PM points to FTAs and skilling plus a major employment incentive to pull youth into formal work. Energy & Shipping Risk: Turkey proposes measures to curb attacks on civilian shipping in the Black Sea, warning of wider economic fallout.

UPI Policy Clash: India’s Finance Ministry rejected claims that US pressure drove a 0.4% Merchant Discount Rate on some UPI credit transactions, saying NPCI rules keep RuPay credit cards as the only option for credit on UPI. Energy Shock & Trade Risk: Economists warn the Iran conflict is breaking oil-market assumptions, with diesel and gasoline pressures feeding into broader inflation and uncertainty. Steel Industry Stress Test: UK’s North Lincolnshire Council says “uncertainty cannot continue” at Tata Steel’s Scunthorpe, urging a credible long-term plan as government support costs mount; Tata Steel also seeks fresh UK funding for Port Talbot delays. Central Bank Autonomy Fight: Nepal’s Finance Committee backed keeping government directive powers over the central bank, while also proposing shorter terms for the governor and deputies. Digital Skills Push: UAE launched CYBRANI to link university training with real-world cybersecurity placements, aiming to build talent for the digital economy. Trade Diplomacy: China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a US visit for economic and trade talks ahead of Xi-Trump meetings, with businesses watching for progress. Industrial Policy & Jobs: Malaysia moves to replace its 2006 e-commerce law with a new bill, while Johor reports RM59.4bn in approved investments in H1 2026 but urges caution on projections.

AI & Education Policy: Florida’s Board of Education approved a K-12 rule requiring parental consent before schools use AI in instruction, with opt-in training for educators and a warning from Gov. DeSantis about “garbage in, garbage out.” Trade & Growth Shock: British Columbia is pausing a sales-tax expansion and rolling out a $90M business aid package as the U.S. trade war threatens jobs and exports. Public Finance Coordination: Nigeria’s finance ministry and the CBN signed an MoU to tighten fiscal-monetary coordination on inflation, debt, cash management, and exchange-rate stability. Global Markets: European investors are trimming exposure to U.S. Treasuries as yields stay near multi-year highs and U.S. debt tops $40T. Food & Energy Risk: The WTO chief warned Strait of Hormuz disruptions could drive the worst global trade disruption in 80 years, raising food and fertilizer price pressure. Environment & Compliance: Conservation groups say a new U.S. Endangered Species Act interpretation would narrow illegal “takes,” likely heading to court fights. Local Economic Engines: Georgia hospitals reported a $145B annual economic impact and 590,000 jobs. Business & Diplomacy: India’s Jaishankar met Nepal’s finance minister to deepen economic, energy, and connectivity ties.

Middle East Energy Shock: A UN-linked ESCWA estimate says the US-Iran war and Tehran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade have cost Arab economies nearly $150B in the first month, about 4% of regional GDP—raising fresh oil and inflation pressure. EU Fiscal Response: EU finance ministers in Dublin will debate an EU-wide windfall tax on energy firms as oil prices climb back above $100 a barrel. UK Monetary Policy: The Bank of England confirmed a major shift in how it unwinds quantitative tightening, scrapping gilt sales and replacing them with a new plan through 2035, easing borrowing-cost fears. UK Labour Workplace Rules: Andy Burnham’s government is tightening “work from home” rights, requiring employers to properly consider and explain refusals. Africa Trade Facilitation: Nigeria is cutting AfCFTA certificate processing to 24 hours and expanding digital trade systems to speed cross-border commerce. Nigeria Macroeconomic Coordination: Nigeria’s finance ministry and central bank signed a MoU to institutionalise fiscal-monetary policy coordination while keeping CBN independence. Ghana Investment Push: Ghana’s finance minister met IFC’s Makhtar Diop to back private-sector-led growth in agriculture value chains and jobs. South Korea Security-Economy Tension: Seoul rejected Trump’s request for broader support against Iran, limiting naval roles to protecting commercial shipping.

Trade War Escalation: The U.S. is set to ban most Canadian alcohol starting Sept. 29, as tariffs and retaliation keep widening the damage to cross-border supply chains and tax revenues. Monetary Policy & Housing: Higher bond yields are already feeding into mortgage rates, adding downward pressure on Canadian housing prices. AI & Policy: The U.S. Fed is moving to formalize AI work via a task force, while regulators and markets weigh how AI could reshape trade and the economy. Migration & Labor Markets: Australia plans tighter temporary visa rules to curb “visa-hopping,” targeting lower net overseas migration. Industrial Policy & Investment Climate: Finland’s growth outlook improves to 1.7% in 2026 on exports and investment, but unemployment and public debt remain risks. Local Execution & Development: South Africa’s auto sector faces “delocalisation” pressures as policy lags market realities, while Panama reports 6.4% Q2 growth driven by logistics, trade, and agriculture. Public Finance & Governance: Jamaica’s diaspora remittances hit US$3.12bn in 2025/26, and Armenia advances community subsidies and a 2027 budget framework.

Trade Sanctions Shock: India says it will take “all necessary measures” to protect trade and energy security after the US Congress passed a Russia sanctions bill that could trigger tariffs up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil and gas. AI & Monetary Policy: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh urged a task force to assess AI’s impact on future monetary policy after the Fed raised rates, while Canada launched a C$13m AI literacy initiative to teach students, educators and the public how to use AI responsibly. Energy Transition Delivery: Malaysia hit its renewable capacity target early, but a new Australia report warns approvals and grid connections are getting harder, adding uncertainty that slows investment. Central Banking Tightening/Support: Japan’s BOJ is expected to lift rates again to the highest in decades, while Thailand’s central bank called policy “very, very accommodative” to support a weak economy. Geopolitics Meets Shipping: With Red Sea and Hormuz risks rising, Asia is pushing Arctic routes, including a South Korean container ship reaching Europe via the Arctic. Regional Trade Performance: The EAC swung back to surplus as exports surged, with total trade up 37% year-on-year in Q2 2026.

Monetary Policy Clash: President Trump blasted the Fed after its first rate hike in more than three years, arguing rates “should be 1%,” while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pointed to bond yields as a signal of a stronger U.S. economy. Housing & Local Economy: Boston Mayor Michelle Wu tied growth to more housing and climate resilience, while Ontario’s “Buy Ontario” procurement rules triggered threats to cut municipal funding. Trade & Markets: USDA unveiled a biofuels trade plan after record $4.7B ethanol exports; EU officials warned October trade talks with China will demand “tangible results”; and Israel weighed further steps after the Netherlands’ West Bank product ban. Industrial Policy & Jobs: Canada’s Unifor pressed Ottawa over Stellantis’ plan to sell the Brampton plant; Kenya secured a $100m EBRD dollar-loan facility to close trade-finance gaps. Public Services Under Pressure: Pediatric clinics warned federal cuts and Medicaid changes are squeezing care for children. Energy & Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia said a Red Sea pipeline outage is temporary, while Guangdong’s gas dispatch shift toward peak-only operations may cool long-term gas demand. Digital Identity & Inclusion: Nigeria expanded digital ID infrastructure to support banking, telecom, and cross-border trade. Health & Safety: Angola moved to formalize 116 informal docks to reduce coastal conflicts and boost local livelihoods.

Hong Kong Tech Push: Chief Executive John Lee unveiled the city’s first Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) and a 2026 policy address, aiming to lift R&D to 3% of GDP after 2030 and build new economic engines around AI, talent, and the Northern Metropolis. EU-Canada Trade Pivot: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offered Canada a path to become the bloc’s first “associate member” as Ottawa seeks to reduce dependence on the US amid tariff escalation. UK Cost-of-Living Pressure: UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August, driven by fuel and airfares, reigniting political fights over who is to blame and what the Autumn Budget should do. Nigeria Debt Risk Warning: Fitch flagged potential transparency and liquidity risks in Nigeria’s proposed $5bn total return swap deal. Energy Theft Crackdown: Nigeria’s power minister asked the EFCC to help tackle vandalism and energy theft that drain the sector. Regional Trade Corridors: Uzbekistan proposed a Central Asia–Korea industrial and critical-minerals push to reach $20bn by 2030, while OTS leaders stressed logistics and the Middle Corridor. Aviation Connectivity: Bangladesh plans direct Dhaka–New York flights next year, contingent on FAA Category 1 status. Healthcare Labor Tension: Latvia’s health workers’ union is pressing for at least 30% pay rises in the 2027 budget and a protest if talks stall. Innovation Funding: Scotland and the UK backed Chemify with £22m to expand “closed-loop” digital chemistry capacity.

Canada–U.S. Trade: Former PM Stephen Harper says Ottawa had “no choice” but to walk away from U.S. trade talks, arguing Washington sees Canada’s integration as incompatible with sovereignty, even as tariffs and retaliation bite. Investment & Tax Policy: Mark Carney’s Canada Investment Summit pushed a “productivity mega deduction” to slash the effective tax rate on new investment, aiming to attract $1T in capital. AI & Rights: Australia’s government is weighing an “opt-out” style compromise that could let AI firms access creatives’ works by default, drawing backlash over copyright and creator protections. Cybersecurity Procurement: A new report warns federal agencies can’t buy cybersecurity fixes fast enough as AI accelerates attacks, pointing to slow acquisition rules and readiness gaps. Public Services & Cost of Living: Trinidad and Tobago defended keeping a reduced super gasoline price despite higher import costs, while Ohio tightened local cybersecurity requirements. Energy & Trade Security: Russia’s energy minister argues the country can’t be excluded from global energy supply chains and calls for open trade at G20. Industrial Policy: UK Steel backed the government’s move to take control of Speciality Steels UK after failed bids, seeking stability for supply chains.

Trade Policy & WTO Reform: The WTO warned that failing to modernize trade rules could cut global GDP by up to 10% and push the world toward fragmentation, with poorer countries hit hardest. India Trade Data: India’s exports rose 26.12% to $43.81bn in August while the trade deficit narrowed to $26.86bn as imports grew 14.1%. Digital Trade Facilitation: India and Mercosur signed a protocol enabling electronic Certificates of Origin, aiming to speed customs and cut paperwork costs. MSME Export Finance: India’s Export Promotion Mission highlighted support for MSMEs, including faster invoice discounting via TReDS and pre/post-shipment credit subvention. AI Regulation & Markets: The UK signaled openness to tougher AI rules as safety warnings mount, while markets weigh a “slower frontier” scenario that could reshape which tech stocks win. Energy & Trade Disruption: A US-Canada tariff fight is pressuring farmers and dairy supply chains, while maritime chokepoints remain a recurring risk to global shipping costs. Regional Development: Kenya moves to prioritize central bank purchases of processed gold to build reserves; Bangladesh plans a blue-economy university in Cox’s Bazar.

Trade & Investment Summit: Canada’s PM Mark Carney is pitching a $1 trillion investment push at a Toronto summit, aiming to pull in capital for mining, energy, AI, advanced manufacturing and infrastructure as US tariffs strain Canada’s export outlook. Monetary Policy Watch: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals a potential policy shift to crush inflation, while markets weigh whether the next moves mean hikes or cuts as inflation stays above target. FX Crackdown: A UAE-Bulgaria trade/tourism push aside, the big policy beat is in the Maldives, where authorities say enforcement is shrinking the black-market dollar spread after illegal traders processed tens of millions. Sanctions Enforcement: The US Treasury under “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctioned Russia’s VTB Bank for helping Iran evade sanctions, raising secondary risk for foreign partners. Industrial Policy & Compliance: Qatar launched “Companies House” to unify company registration and licensing across economic zones, including tax and immigration services. Energy & Cost Pressure: Bulgaria’s trade unions are pressing for targeted compensation as fuel prices rise, with talks expected to feed into next year’s budget. Trade Diversification: India and MERCOSUR are set to expand their preferential trade pact to broaden export markets. Corruption/Procurement Risk: Philippines President Marcos says substandard steel trafficking may date back to 2018, with investigations still mapping how much entered construction supply chains.

Indonesia Finance Shake-Up: President Prabowo sacked Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa and named deputy Suahasil Nazara, stressing a “trustworthy” state budget and keeping the fiscal deficit under 3% of GDP. Fed Watch: Markets are split ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC, with some pricing a hike while many economists expect rates to stay put. Nigeria Energy Pressure: Petrol prices in Nigeria climbed again, with some stations above ₦1,400 per litre, squeezing commuters and raising transport costs; a think tank warns against reverting to universal fuel subsidies, estimating a ₦20tn annual bill. Trade Deals & Tariffs: The US and Mexico are pushing for a pre–midterm trade deal that could cut some US tariffs on autos, while the US also finalized duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia and Laos. E-commerce Rules: Malaysia’s retail lobby wants stricter, more equal cross-border e-commerce surcharges and tighter enforcement against low-value goods and counterfeits. Regional Growth Signals: Xinhua says southern eurozone economies are showing renewed resilience despite a slower eurozone outlook. Smart Consumption Push: China unveiled an action plan to boost smart home demand, including elderly-friendly upgrades and recycling services. Public Procurement Integrity: Philippines President Marcos warned illegal substandard steel may have spread since 2018, as investigations continue. Middle East Trade Routes: Oman said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon and urged diversification of energy export routes.

U.S. Rates & Debt Management: The Treasury said it will buy back up to $6bn of long-dated Treasuries—triple its usual size—to support the bond market as long yields and oil prices climb. Digital Asset Regulation: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Senate to pass the Clarity Act, warning that inaction would undermine U.S. leadership on crypto rules. Trade Policy Shockwaves: Bangladesh Bank issued guidance to implement the Import Policy Order 2026-2029, easing trade paperwork for importers and updating payment options. BRICS Push for New Rules: BRICS adopted the New Delhi Declaration, calling for conflict prevention and opposing unilateral trade measures, while leaders backed cooperation on technology and supply chains. Energy & Industry: Commerce confirmed dumping findings on solar cells from India, Indonesia and Laos, setting AD/CVD rates that could reshape U.S. supply. AI & Jobs Debate: Obama urged Democrats to build a concrete AI plan covering safety and economic impacts, including job displacement. Climate Risk: New research warns Himalayan glaciers are melting faster and monitoring is too thin, raising the odds of dangerous glacial-lake floods.