AGP Executive Report

Global Trade: China’s trade surplus reached $938 billion in the first nine months of 2026 after September exports jumped 36% year over year, intensifying pressure on trading partners to address the imbalance. Energy Costs: New Zealand’s government has quietly selected a preferred supplier for a proposed LNG terminal, drawing criticism over undisclosed costs, safety assessments and alternatives that could affect households and businesses. Tax Policy: Australia plans a 30% minimum tax on many trusts from 2028, aiming to raise $4.47 billion; small-business groups warn the changes could force costly restructures. Export Growth: Pakistan’s planning minister says reaching $100 billion in exports by 2035 is key to easing balance-of-payments pressure, and called for a shift toward production-led growth. Household Pressures: U.S. inflation rose to 3.7% in September, squeezing consumers and businesses as food, energy and other costs climb.

Global Debt: The IMF says government borrowing could hit 100% of global GDP by 2029, as rising interest costs squeeze budgets and leave less room to handle shocks. China Trade: China’s January–September surplus reached $938 billion after exports jumped 36.3% in September, intensifying pressure from trading partners over imbalances. India’s deficit with China topped $105 billion. Asia Growth: Singapore grew 5.4% in the third quarter, down from 6.2% in the previous quarter; its central bank held policy steady. Vietnam, meanwhile, reported 9.01% growth in the first nine months and is pushing for more than 10% this year. Trade Ties: EFTA and Vietnam are set to sign a free-trade deal on Sunday, while Türkiye and the EU are advancing technical talks to update their Customs Union.

Global Outlook: The IMF warned that an AI market correction, conflict and rising debt threaten growth, forecasting the world economy will expand 3.1% in 2026. It urged the UK to stick to deficit reduction and limit cost-of-living aid to avoid reigniting inflation. Asia’s Growth: Singapore’s economy grew 5.4% in the third quarter, down from 6.2% in the previous quarter, as manufacturing growth slowed. Saudi Strain: Saudi Arabia faces a projected 3.6% economic contraction this year as conflict with the Houthis drives up military costs, widens deficits and disrupts investment plans. Trade: China and the EU reached an arrangement on hybrid-vehicle exports, aiming to preserve growth for Chinese firms and avoid discriminatory treatment. Iraq’s Currency: Iraq’s devaluation has cut household purchasing power, while a persistent gap between official and parallel exchange rates highlights weak public trust in banks.

Sri Lanka’s Investment Push: More than 800 delegates gathered at the country’s annual economic summit as officials sought to turn restored stability into investment and sustained growth. The government is targeting a digital economy worth 12% of GDP by 2030, but gaps in public digital services and talent migration remain hurdles. Trade and Supply Chains: Malaysia warned that disruption in the South China Sea could threaten supply chains and economic stability; more than 96% of its international trade moves by sea. Germany is also backing tougher EU trade defenses against China, a shift driven by concerns about the cost of inaction for German industry. Developing Economies: G24 chair Taiwo Oyedele said developing countries face about $500 billion more in debt-servicing costs than advanced economies, squeezing funds for growth and jobs. Global Outlook: The IMF sees world growth slowing to 3.1% in 2026, with war-related energy shocks, debt and financial-market risks weighing on prospects. Nigeria: The Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.2%, while warning that higher prices for essentials could deepen pressure on households. Inflation: An Indian economist said severe El Niño conditions and costly crude could keep food and fuel inflation elevated, though September’s reading was broadly in line with expectations.

Economic Nobel: Robert Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 prize for models that help governments and central banks respond to shocks through fiscal and monetary policy. Trade: China and the EU reached an understanding on hybrid and electric vehicle trade, aiming to prevent tensions from escalating and provide businesses with more certainty. New Zealand: The Green Party’s economic plan promises 284,000 jobs over four years and would redirect investment incentives toward research and development, targeting 3% of GDP in R&D spending. Industrial Policy: Former UN industrial chief Kandeh Yumkella urged Nigeria to make reliable energy central to its industrial strategy, noting manufacturers spent an estimated 1.3 trillion naira on self-generated power in 2025.

Economic Policy: Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford won the 2026 economics Nobel for research underpinning models central banks and governments use to steady economies through shocks. Industrial Strategy: India’s draft steel policy targets 604 million tonnes of annual capacity and 505 million tonnes of demand by 2047, aiming to cut import dependence and emissions. Trade: China and the EU reached a deal on hybrid and electric vehicle trade, easing tensions; Cambodia’s trade with the two blocs rose 16% to $19.29 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Growth Risks: Malaysia plans to diversify exports and strengthen domestic supply chains to reduce reliance on semiconductors. Jobs and Technology: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned AI could reshape or displace 40% of jobs over time and widen Asia’s economic divide without worker training. Financial Stability: Sri Lanka’s central bank flagged rising exposure to vehicle and gold-backed loans, now 24.9% of financial-sector credit, and has set targeted controls.

Energy Costs: New Zealand petrol has hit a record NZ$3.60 a litre, with crude producers and refiners benefiting most; the government also collects more GST as prices rise. The IEA has urged members to assess whether further diesel releases are needed amid war-related supply disruption. Public Finance: Ghana’s Treasury received GH¢5.06 billion in bill bids, 76.4% above its target, while yields fell across maturities. At the IMF meetings, Britain’s finance minister plans to press major economies to rein in borrowing as inflation and high debt push up bond yields. Trade: Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade value rose 11% in the first five months of 2026. Globally, AI infrastructure demand helped goods trade post its strongest half-year in 15 years. Export Pressures: Pakistan’s textile exporters warn that weak overseas demand and freight costs up as much as 2.5 times are squeezing margins, and urge temporary tax relief. Investment: Bangladesh says it will support Marubeni’s plans to expand in sectors including energy, fertiliser and vehicle manufacturing, while officials develop a national port strategy to improve trade capacity.

Global Outlook: Middle East conflict, disrupted energy supplies, higher borrowing costs and rising public debt are set to dominate IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, as risks to growth and inflation mount. China-EU Trade: Beijing and Brussels reached 16 points of agreement, including exploring tariff cuts and addressing hybrid-vehicle trade, in a bid to steady ties between two major trading partners. U.S.-China Trade: A new framework identifies about $30 billion in goods on each side for possible tariff reductions. U.S. farm groups say lower tariffs could help exports compete, but sales are not guaranteed and whole soybeans are excluded. India Industry: A draft steel policy targets 604 million tonnes of capacity by 2047, while seeking to cut emissions and reduce reliance on imported coking coal. U.S. Manufacturing: Some producers say tariffs have sharply raised input costs, while higher shipping charges add pressure—an economic strain feeding into the midterm campaign.

China–EU Trade: Beijing and Brussels agreed to keep trade ties stable, improve market access and explore tariff cuts, easing immediate tensions over vehicle exports. Their next trade consultation is scheduled for March 2027. Canada–India Ties: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates will join ministers on a trade mission to India as the countries push to conclude a trade pact. Ukraine’s Economy: Russian strikes have halted operations at Kryvyi Rih’s major steel and mining complex, deepening pressure on local services and Ukraine’s strained budget. U.S. Debt: The Congressional Budget Office chief warned that even strong growth is unlikely to stabilize federal debt on its own, pointing to the need for political choices on spending and revenue. Kuwait Reforms: Kuwait is advancing financial and economic reforms to diversify funding, attract investment and support development under its Vision 2035 agenda.

Trade: Malaysia and Egypt will use a joint commission next year to expand trade, investment and flight links; bilateral trade has risen 74.7% this year, though from a low base. China–EU ties: Beijing and Brussels reached preliminary agreements to explore tariff cuts, ease market-access frictions and stabilize trade, including talks on electric and hybrid vehicles. Growth measures: China says it will step up fiscal support and expand domestic demand. Infrastructure: Malaysia’s works ministry received RM10.88 billion for 2027, up 1.78%, with major funding for highways, roads and bridges. Regional commerce: Cambodia and Vietnam reaffirmed a $20 billion trade target and pledged to improve cross-border links. Business incentives: Jordan’s cabinet approved support covering up to 75% of port container-handling costs for manufacturing and assembly projects in Aqaba. U.S. economy: Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade as September hiring disappointed and unemployment edged higher.

EU-China Trade: Beijing and Brussels reached an initial deal that could halve Chinese hybrid-car exports to the EU, while pledging to stabilize rare-earth supplies and keep trade talks going. China’s Economy: Beijing is freeing up 550 billion yuan in unused local-government borrowing quotas for budgets and infrastructure, alongside broader pro-growth measures. Canada Jobs: The economy shed 68,000 jobs in September, adding to concerns about the labour market. Global Trade: The WTO has raised its 2026 goods-trade growth forecast, even as UNCTAD expects growth to slow from last year. Nigeria Fuel Policy: A 30-day petrol discount has sparked a dispute over whether public funds are involved, with critics demanding details of the cost.

Malaysia’s Fiscal Policy: Subsidised fuel purchases reached RM18 billion by August, as the government expands targeted aid while seeking stronger public finances and protection for vulnerable households. AI and Growth: A UAE minister says AI agents could let one-person businesses scale to billion-dollar valuations, with firms already using agents to boost productivity. Budget 2027: Malaysia’s government says the budget should support growth and ease living costs after the economy expanded 5.7% in the first half of 2026. Drug Costs: India will cap trade margins on non-scheduled cancer medicines at 30% of retail prices, with officials projecting savings of about ₹2,500 crore a year. Trade: Malaysia and South Korea expect bilateral trade to exceed US$40 billion this year after concluding FTA negotiations; meanwhile, India and ASEAN are accelerating talks to update their goods pact. EU and Chinese officials are also seeking to ease trade tensions amid a €1.12 billion daily deficit.

China–EU Trade: China’s commerce chief met the EU trade commissioner in Beijing as tensions over Chinese exports and the yuan mount; Beijing rejected claims it weakens its currency to gain an export edge. Nigeria’s Fuel Policy: The government announced a 30-day petrol discount at NNPC stations, prioritizing public transport operators, as high fuel costs pressure households and businesses. Portugal’s Budget: The central bank chief urged the country to prepare for external shocks. The 2027 budget targets a 0.1% surplus and lower public debt, which the finance minister says should be preserved. Rwanda’s Growth: GDP rose 9.7% in the first half of 2026, led by industry and services; the central bank projects 7.8% growth for the year but warns of risks from conflict and trade disruption. Canada’s Investment: Ottawa pledged $2 billion for home-efficiency upgrades aimed at one million households, with lower heating costs and emissions among the goals. Gulf Connectivity: The UAE and Saudi Arabia agreed to study cross-border rail links and electricity connections to improve trade and energy integration.

Skills and Growth: Malaysia says its move into higher-value industries depends on stronger links between employers and training institutions, with new education and vocational plans aimed at supplying skilled workers. Trade Deals: The UAE and Thailand have concluded negotiations on a trade pact expected to cut barriers and expand investment in manufacturing, logistics, food security and digital trade. T&T Outlook: Economists warn that Trinidad and Tobago faces slowing growth, job losses and foreign-exchange shortages, and question the World Bank’s forecast of a 2.5% rebound in 2027 after two years of contraction. Tax Reform: India’s finance ministry is proposing to decriminalise many GST offences and speed up refunds, part of a shift toward trust-based tax administration. Europe’s Economy: Germany raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%, citing resilient activity and AI-related demand, while EU officials urged France to pass a 2027 budget as borrowing costs climb. UK-India Trade: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will lead company executives and regional mayors to India to build on the countries’ trade deal and pursue new partnerships.

EU-China Trade: Brussels opened talks in Beijing over a goods deficit topping €1 billion a day and Chinese restrictions on rare-earth exports, as EU lawmakers press for a tougher response. India-US Deal: Negotiations have stalled, with India’s finance minister citing little room to compromise; tariffs tied to Russian oil purchases and a US industrial-capacity probe remain obstacles. Global Trade Rules: The US, EU, India and 12 other economies called for action against excess manufacturing capacity and market-distorting policies, warning that countries may otherwise defend their industries individually. Economic Outlook: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned of a difficult 2027, citing energy costs, rising public debt, inflation and risks from the AI investment boom. US Rates and Jobs: September Fed minutes showed unanimous support for a rate hike, but subsequent data—including just 29,000 jobs added—has shifted the outlook.

Malaysia Budget: Prime Minister Anwar says Friday’s 2027 budget will aim to ease living costs and spread the benefits of growth more fairly. Digital Commerce: Malaysia’s communications regulator is coordinating with platforms and ministries on seller checks and action against illegal listings, amid concerns about impacts on small businesses and retailers. India’s Economy: The RBI raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and lifted its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%; the rupee remains under pressure. Global Risks: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that the AI investment boom, energy disruptions and mounting government debt could fuel inflation and widen inequality, urging policymakers to stay cautious. Trade Tensions: India and the US remain far apart on tariffs and market access, with talks described as having reached a plateau. Emerging Markets: Ghana’s cabinet approved a formal application to join BRICS, seeking to diversify its economic partnerships.