AGP Executive Report

Semiconductors & Trade Policy: Malaysia is pushing its electrical and electronics push—especially semiconductors and sensors—while tightening export-control compliance to keep Penang and the Northern Region competitive in global supply chains. Housing & Data-Driven Planning: Malaysia’s new National Housing Policy 2026-2035 shifts development toward local needs and market demand to cut unsold homes, aiming for one million affordable units by 2035. Monetary Policy Watch: The Philippines’ central bank says pressure to hike rates has eased as growth slows and inflation cools, but it will keep tightening if core inflation doesn’t stay on track. Public Spending Pipeline: Malaysia’s Economy Ministry expects to finish screening 2027 development spending proposals by mid-August for submission to Finance. UPI Rules: India’s finance ministry says UPI users won’t face transaction charges; any Merchant Discount Rate would be limited to select merchants at a nominal rate. EU Governance: A debate over ending unanimity in EU foreign policy highlights how member states still use vetoes when interests are at stake. Minimum Wage Talks: Serbia’s minimum wage negotiations begin today, with unions pressing for double-digit increases. Energy & Security Link: South Korea orders Gwangju Air Base functions to move by mid-2028 to speed up a second semiconductor belt. Ukraine Cultural Economy: Russia’s strikes have burned millions of Ukrainian books, threatening the publishing industry and national language identity. FCRA Overhaul: India’s FCRA Amendment Bill and updated rules face renewed scrutiny as states and NGOs argue about foreign funding limits. Transport & Growth: Scotland’s bus fare cap debate is tied to congestion costs, with research estimating millions of hours of lost time and tens of millions in annual economic value.

Geopolitics & Energy Pressure: Trump says the U.S. is “semi-negotiating” with Iran while keeping a naval blockade, framing Iran’s inflation and cash crunch as leverage. Fiscal Policy Watch: New Zealand’s National faces criticism for a “least ambitious” debt plan, with rules targeting surplus by 2028/29 and debt under 40% of GDP. Trade & Growth: UK launches consultations on deepening trade with the Philippines ahead of possible CPTPP accession, aiming to cut tariffs and streamline rules. Regional Integration (Africa): MTN Ghana chair Dr. Ishmael Yamson urges African governments to back home-grown multinationals and harmonize regulations to make AfCFTA work. Infrastructure Execution: Philippines growth slows to 2.3% in Q2; economists say second-half recovery hinges on faster infrastructure spending and better budget execution. Tax Administration: Mauritius moves to ratify the India DTAA protocol with a principal purpose test to curb treaty shopping while reassuring genuine investors. Housing Finance: Nigeria’s FMBN launches a diaspora mortgage pathway in London to expand NHF access and investment in housing. Governance & Delivery: Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency board is inaugurated, with a push to tie decisions to electrification and inclusion.

Digital Government Progress: Jordan says 85.8% of government services are digitized by end-H1 2026, with about 2.8 million activated digital IDs on the Sanad app and new education/digital-skills tools rolling out. Public Finance & Cost of Living: UK data points to resilience, with economists expecting GDP growth around 0.4% in Q2, while heatwaves and construction weakness could dent June. Energy Prices Watch: Pakistan’s petroleum minister hints consumers may get “good news” on petrol prices if global oil stays stable over the next two days, after avoiding shortages during regional tensions. Trade & Security Shock: UAE warns of economic fallout from attacks on shipping and the Strait of Hormuz closure, citing Adnoc vessel impacts; separately, Russia-Ukraine strikes continue to hit civilian areas. Industrial Policy & Retaliation: A Reuters look at Germany-China trade shows exports down and the deficit widening, as China shifts toward domestic value chains. Governance & Revenue Politics: Nigeria’s revenue chief Zacch Adedeji faces backlash after comments dismissing critics of Tinubu’s reforms, reigniting debate on how reforms cushion households. Supply Chain Bottleneck: Nepal-China trade at Tatopani halts after a border road closure tied to landslides and alleged maintenance failures. BRICS Trade Agenda: Indonesia says BRICS trade ministers backed most priorities in Jaipur, focusing on MSME finance, resilient supply chains, and keeping WTO central.

US Labor & Budget: The US Senate passed a continuing resolution to fund the federal government through December, aiming to avert a shutdown while extending key programs and preserving some import incentives. US Jobs Watch: New data showed employers cut 23,000 jobs in July and unemployment fell to 4.1% as fewer people looked for work—an uneven signal for the labor market. Iran & Shipping Economics: Iran’s officials warned the US blockade could push the economy toward collapse, while talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz hinge on major sanctions and asset demands. Trade Disruptions at BRICS: BRICS trade ministers in Jaipur pushed stronger trade links and SME support, with UAE officials calling for the Strait’s immediate reopening. Nigeria Cost-of-Living Politics: Atiku attacked Nigeria’s economic management using CBN survey results showing weak willingness to buy vehicles, durables, and property. Customs & Digital Trade: Nigeria’s customs chief urged lawmakers to overhaul outdated customs laws to match digital trade realities. EU Migration Leverage: The EU’s migration commissioner floated using visa and trade tools to press Morocco on migration cooperation. Tech & Startups: India’s commerce ministry signed MoUs to back startups via digital payments, cloud, fintech, AI, and global market access. Affordability Policy: Seattle moved to block grocery retailers from using personal data to set different prices for different shoppers. Energy Infrastructure: Nigeria’s federal projects in Benue were pitched as trade boosters and job creators, while Zambia broke ground on a 100MW Kasama solar plant to diversify power supply.

Labor Market Watch: The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, with unemployment around 4.1% and weaker prime-age employment raising concerns about slowing wage growth. Trade Policy & MSMEs: Indonesia urged a rules-based trading system at BRICS, arguing predictable access to finance and faster trade procedures are key for MSMEs to scale. BRICS Agenda: BRICS trade ministers in Jaipur adopted “Economic Partnership 2030,” including plans to assess export-oriented MSMEs using cash-flow based credit scoring to expand lending. E-Commerce Rules: Oman reported 26 of 30 initiatives completed under its National E-Commerce Plan 2022-2027, while Türkiye preserved preferential customs treatment for low-value EU e-commerce shipments under new EU rules. Regional Energy & Growth: Europe’s drought and low river levels are forcing drastic measures that hit energy and economic activity. Diplomacy With Trade Links: Armenia and Azerbaijan marked the first anniversary of the Washington peace summit, highlighting growing petroleum exports and transit cargo under the TRIPP route. Digital Finance Regulation: Regulators are building a “stablecoin firewall” for cross-border transfers, with U.S. proposals pushing for traceability of issuers and intermediaries. Public Finance & Housing: Britain’s TUC called for a root-and-branch review of the OBR, arguing its assumptions may be holding back public investment.

US Labor Market: The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, missing expectations, with unemployment slipping to 4.1% as fewer people looked for work—while wages rose only 3.2% year over year, keeping pressure on household budgets. Canada-U.S. Trade: Canada and the U.S. are reportedly discussing a deal to swap concessions—on autos, dairy quota interpretation, and alcohol access—for the U.S. dropping threats of new tariffs starting Aug. 19; Prime Minister Carney called the talks “unpleasant” after Trump’s criticism. Philippines Growth: The Philippines’ Q2 growth slowed to 2.3% as Middle East war fallout hit inflation, fuel prices, jobs, and remittances; Malacañang says the slowdown is temporary and expects pickup in the second half. Energy Access in Nigeria: Nigeria’s power ministry will measure electrification by communities and people connected, not megawatts, as it pushes rural electrification through the Rural Electrification Agency. Government Finance Markets: Tanzania launched its first sovereign yield curve to improve transparency in government securities pricing and attract investors. Trade & Policy in BRICS: India wrapped up BRICS trade talks in Jaipur, focusing on WTO-centered reform, trade finance access for MSMEs, and resilient supply chains.

Philippines Growth Watch: The Marcos administration said the Philippines’ Q2 2026 slowdown to 2.3% is “temporary,” blaming Middle East-driven inflation, fuel costs, jobs and remittances, and pointing to faster budget releases and infrastructure spending to lift momentum in H2. Public Health & Human Capital: Indonesia’s Health Ministry asked the Transmigration Ministry’s 2026 Patriot Expedition Team to map health issues and basic services in transmigration areas, linking healthier communities to longer, more productive lives. Credit & Fiscal Credibility: Romania’s interim prime minister said rating agencies will weigh deficit and debt discipline, expressing optimism the country’s outlook will be maintained. Trade & Tariffs: Chinese experts condemned the US move to impose price floors and a 15% tariff on polysilicon products as protectionism aimed at slowing China’s industrial and chip supply chain growth. Regional Trade Integration: The East African Community set a goal to raise intra-regional trade to 50% by 2030, citing non-tariff barriers, inconsistent customs implementation and high transport costs. Illicit Medicines Crackdown: South Africa’s pharma manufacturers urged urgent action against illegal medicine trade, warning it now involves healthcare practitioners. Energy Diplomacy: Azerbaijan and Ukraine discussed gas supply, using Ukraine storage, and restoring trade to pre-war levels.

Trade Tensions: Canada’s PM Mark Carney called U.S. talks “nasty” after Trump’s tariff threats, saying the fight is about protecting Canadian jobs and businesses as 50% tariffs loom. Monetary Policy: Malawi’s central bank held its policy rate at 24% to keep inflation falling while supporting recovery, citing easing food prices but sticky non-food costs. Climate & Supply Chains: Germany’s Rhine low-water levels are squeezing river freight and raising costs, pushing officials to seek faster fixes to keep the industrial waterway moving. AI & Development: The World Bank says AI could boost productivity for 16.2% of workers in developing economies, but only if countries close gaps in power, internet, and skills. Industrial Cooperation: BRICS industry ministers adopted a Jaipur joint declaration to strengthen resilient, innovation-led industrial ties under PartNIR. Immigration & Labor: U.S. lawmakers urged DHS to extend Temporary Protected Status for Ukrainians as it nears expiration, warning of economic and workforce impacts. Air Travel Pricing: American Airlines will cap some complimentary upgrades at premium economy on select long-haul routes, tightening access to business class. Local Finance & Housing: Ghana’s gold-reserve push lifted reserves to $11.9B but came with major central bank losses, while NYC’s mobility summit focused on housing pathways to homeownership.

Public Procurement Discipline: Saudi Arabia approved a new Government Tenders and Procurement Law, warning firms not to start work before contract awards to curb disputes and improve transparency. Trade & Tech Retaliation: China rolled out tighter drone export controls and counter-sanctions on seven US firms, escalating a tit-for-tat trade fight. Digital Payments Expansion: Indonesia delayed income-tax collection by e-commerce platforms to Nov 1, refunding already-collected amounts, while Guangdong proposed expanding cross-border digital yuan pilots in its free trade zone plan. Monetary Policy Watch: Economists pushed back on expectations for an RBI rate hike as inflation pressures look contained, with the central bank expected to stay steady longer. Energy Security Reframed: India’s energy security push now hinges on manufacturing resilience and tech supply chains, not just resource access. Governance & Trust: Nepal’s Auditor General flagged inconsistent understanding of economic laws and called for updating rules for AI-era auditing, as private-sector leaders urged more predictable, business-friendly oversight. Labor & Social Safety Nets: Dutch unions joined actions targeting proposed social security cuts, setting strikes for early September.

Tax Reform Push: Romania’s PM Vasile Tofan unveiled a fiscal overhaul aimed at cutting labor taxes and boosting levies on banks, tobacco, alcohol and gambling, framing it as a tax-burden reshuffle to curb the shadow economy. Trade Corridors & Investment: Pakistan and Iran discussed expanding investment, barter trade and joint ventures, including a Karachi–Chabahar corridor, with sector talks spanning rice, petrochemicals and steel. Energy & Shipping Costs: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright signaled another likely extension of the Jones Act waiver as fuel prices stay elevated, a move aimed at easing transport costs ahead of midterms. Monetary Policy Watch: India’s RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% in a neutral stance, citing uncertainty from West Asia, inflation risks and global trade volatility while projecting 6.7% growth for FY27. Digital Government Services: Saudi Arabia’s Tawakkalna App added 40 new services in July via partnerships with dozens of government entities, expanding one-stop access to public services. Local Economic Support: South Africa’s Public Works Minister Dean Macpherson secured zero-cost access for local fishermen and SMMEs to Elands Bay slipway and harbour facilities. Corporate Tax Scrutiny: A UK report says Palantir paid just £2.1m in corporation tax in 2024 despite large government contracts, pointing to transfer-pricing profit shifting.

Central Banking & Markets: India’s RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for a third straight meeting, while raising FY27 GDP growth to 6.7% and flagging West Asia risks—markets reacted with Sensex higher and Nifty flat. Monetary Reform & FX: Nigeria’s CBN pointed to easing inflation, a tighter FX spread (below 2% vs bureau de change), and rising reserves as signs reforms are working. Trade & Policy Coordination: Canada’s business leaders told KPMG they’re optimistic about Ottawa’s agenda, but execution matters most as U.S. tariff threats loom. Digital Economy & Regulation: Nigeria moved to tax crypto transactions with new virtual-asset guidelines, including possible stamp duty collection tied to digital assets. Food & Social Protection: Himachal Pradesh unveiled health insurance up to ₹10 lakh for poor families; Zambia launched food security support for 1,000 Chilanga households. Growth Watch: Indonesia’s Q2 growth slowed to 5.3% but beat forecasts on household and government spending. Energy, Agriculture & Risk: WTO will host “World Trade and Tech Day” in Geneva on AI’s role in trade; Nepal issued a new National Agriculture Policy to modernize and boost self-reliance. Local Governance: South Africa’s business lobby warned municipal dysfunction is now a national economic risk ahead of elections.

IMF Syria Recovery: The IMF agreed a technical assistance programme for Syria after a July mission, projecting double-digit growth in 2026 but warning poverty remains widespread and recovery is uneven. Budget Watch: Finland’s finance ministry unveiled a €92.2b 2027 budget proposal with a €12.9b deficit and a planned spending cut cap of €4.8b. Trade Tensions—Canada-US: Canada’s trade surplus widened in June as exports rose and imports fell, while Canada-U.S. talks resume in Washington ahead of tariff deadlines. E20 Fuel Backlash (India): India’s Punjab Assembly passed a resolution opposing the Centre’s E20 petrol rollout, citing vehicle compatibility, consumer protection, and pricing concerns; protests also continued in Delhi. Syria Growth Outlook: The IMF links Syria’s rebound to improved rainfall, agriculture recovery, expanding hydrocarbon output, electricity, trade and services—alongside refugee returns. Sustainable Energy & Water (Kenya): Kenya began public participation on a Lake Baringo irrigation plan aimed at creating ~100,000 jobs and generating nearly Sh40b in economic value. Food & Logistics (South Africa): SA freight and meat-trade groups signed a cooperation deal to tackle port, border, and veterinary logistics bottlenecks. Public Finance Oversight (South Africa): A new push for tighter budget monitoring will require six-monthly progress reporting on major projects. Business & Growth (China): China’s services trade rose 8.3% in H1 2026, led by knowledge-intensive exports.

Global Growth Outlook: Mapfre Economics projects world growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, with inflation easing but risks tied to fiscal stress and uneven recovery. Trade & Tariffs: A coalition of 25 US states challenges Trump’s Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries, including India, arguing weak legal footing and higher costs for Americans. South Asia Trade Deals: Bangladesh and South Korea sign a CEPA, granting preferential access for most goods; Pakistan and Iran reaffirm a $10bn trade target and push an early FTA, with Karachi and Gwadar ports in focus. Energy & Transport Policy: Philippines fuel subsidy talks consider a P20-per-liter support for PUV drivers; Pakistan says it has no generation shortage but needs storage and grid flexibility for solar surpluses. AI, Aviation & Copyright: Malaysia invites feedback on a Low Altitude Economy framework and clarifies that AI training using copyrighted material requires licensing/royalties. Local Economy & Jobs: India’s Telangana faces backlash after a CM remark calling some engineering graduates a “criminal waste,” while World Bank cuts the Philippines growth forecast to 3.7% for 2026.

Trade Deal Momentum: Indonesia and Thailand adopted a 2026–2030 strategic roadmap and set a goal of $20bn in bilateral trade by 2030, backed by a new Joint Trade Commission to tackle barriers and boost investment. Trade Expansion: India’s commerce minister urged doubling India–Uzbekistan trade to about $3bn over three years, pointing to mining, cotton, pharma, textiles, and advanced manufacturing, with a possible free trade agreement on the table. Tariffs in the Courts: Arizona joined a multi-state lawsuit challenging the federal government’s tariff authority, arguing import taxes are raising costs for households and small businesses. FX and Inflation Watch: The U.S. and Japan coordinated yen support, reviving concerns about carry-trade spillovers for markets including crypto. Energy Policy: Ghana rolled out a GH¢2/litre temporary diesel relief, while regulators in Nepal advanced new animal welfare and transport policy updates. Competition & Consumer Protection: ECOWAS warned that price-fixing and anti-competitive practices are undermining regional integration and driving up prices.

Monetary Policy Watch (US): Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s new task forces are reigniting debate over how U.S. monetary policy should be guided, with economists warning that unclear signals could raise market volatility and growth risk. Central Banking (China): China’s central bank pledged a moderately loose stance for H2, aiming to keep liquidity ample and support tech and private-enterprise financing. Trade & Investment (Uzbekistan): Uzbekistan invited Indian firms into mining and rare earths, targeting $2bn bilateral trade next year and pitching gold, copper, uranium and critical minerals. Energy Transition & Markets: Argus launched SAF emissions reduction indexes to help airlines compare SAF economics against carbon market costs. Regional Business & Policy (Philippines): Manila’s Metro Manila Business Conference 2026 (Aug 3–4) will focus on energy, trade and security for resilient ASEAN growth. Quality & Border Trade (Africa): Tanzania rolled out the Africa Quality Mark to cut inspection delays and non-tariff barriers under AfCFTA. Housing Delivery (Spain): Canary Islands admitted it awarded no new public social housing contracts in 2026 so far, despite a large waiting list. Regulation & Compliance (Nigeria): Nigeria’s federal treasury circular tightens contract approvals, requiring budgetary backing before ministries can sign or commit funds. Aviation & Transport (Turkey): Istanbul Airport set a new daily passenger record, reinforcing its role as a global transfer hub.

Food Security Overhaul: The Philippines’ PIDS warns food programs are misweighted toward rice production and hurt by weak budget execution, leaving malnutrition and high prices persistent. Monetary Policy Cuts: Bangladesh Bank cut the repo rate 50 bps to 9.50% to spur private credit and recovery, while China’s central bank pledged moderately loose policy in H2. Inflation Watch: Philippines inflation forecasts remain pressured by El Niño, geopolitics, and a weaker peso; RBI is expected to hold rates as June inflation in India breached its 4% target. Trade & Borders: India-China border trade via Nathula and Shipki-La resumes after years, and Somalia pushes customs reforms to make EAC/AfCFTA membership pay off. Energy & Industry: Ghana’s TOR gets capacity expansion plans toward 100,000 bpd; Ukraine prepares support for agricultural exporters as attacks disrupt ports. Digital & Work Reform: Malaysia rolls out a Hybrid Workday policy to modernise public services. Policy Debate: Nigeria’s Presidency rejects Atiku’s economic critique as outdated, while Nigeria launches a National Laureate Programme to boost research and the knowledge economy.