AGP Executive Report

Trade: Vietnam’s imports and exports topped $1.01 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, up 32.3% year over year. Manufactured goods made up 87.4% of exports, while the cumulative trade deficit reached $12.7 billion. Industry: Jordan’s new chemicals and cosmetics strategy targets exports above JD2 billion by 2029, with lower energy costs and more high-value production. The sector has about 744 firms and 17,000 direct jobs. Travel and Jobs: Kenya is pressing Saudi Arabia to lift Ebola-related travel restrictions, warning that visa suspensions threaten trade, tourism and employment. Investment: Malaysia’s deputy housing minister says a Formula 1 return should be assessed for its potential to generate jobs and economic returns, while MotoGP hosting has been extended through 2031. Oil Outlook: Suriname is forecast to grow 21.5% in 2028 as offshore oil production starts, but rapid growth alone may not translate into higher household incomes or better public services.

Supply Chains: Quad ministers pledged to strengthen critical supply chains and criticized economic coercion through export restrictions, while calling for open shipping lanes. The G20 talks ended without consensus, though the US chair’s statement highlighted energy and food security. Trade Diversification: Canada is targeting a doubling of non-US trade over the next decade as tariff disputes push Ottawa to seek new partners. African Commerce: Border delays, checkpoints and unofficial payments are raising trade costs, the Borderless Alliance warned, urging countries to implement existing regional agreements. Energy Markets: Nepal has begun issuing letters of intent to firms exploring electricity trading, a first step toward possible cross-border power deals; a formal licensing framework is still needed. Regional Investment: Pakistan and Qatar identified nine areas for trade and investment cooperation, including agriculture, logistics, mining and energy.

Malaysia’s Digital Economy: The courier industry contributes RM6.9 billion, and the government is reviewing postal rules to improve security and keep pace with e-commerce growth. Household Support: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Malaysia’s RM16 billion in cash and food aid is compatible with sound finances, warning that corruption and public-fund leakages pose greater risks to the economy. Textiles: India extended its cotton-import duty exemption through December 31 to ease manufacturers’ costs and support exports. China’s Factory Activity: Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.3 in October, signaling contraction, while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. France’s Debt: Fitch kept France at A+ but cut its outlook to negative, citing weak growth and a worsening debt path; debt could reach 124% of GDP in 2028. Malta’s Growth: Moody’s affirmed the country’s A2 rating and forecast 4.1% growth this year, while warning that energy subsidies weigh on public finances. Jordan’s Investment: A new circular-economy roadmap aims to turn waste reduction and more efficient use of water and energy into investment and jobs.

France’s Budget Pressure: Fresh protests over living costs and public services are testing the government as it negotiates a 2027 budget, with public debt nearing 120% of GDP and borrowing costs rising. Canada’s Trade Gateway: Ottawa has fast-tracked Roberts Bank Terminal 2, a port expansion expected to lift West Coast container capacity by 30% and help avert shipping costs topping C$800 million a year by 2035. Canada’s Growth: GDP was flat for a second month in August, as declines in wholesale trade offset gains in manufacturing and retail. Nigeria’s Borrowing Plan: President Bola Tinubu defended plans for US$20.5 billion and €1.45 billion in new foreign loans, saying infrastructure investment is key to a $1 trillion economy; labour groups questioned the need for more borrowing. Guyana-UK Ties: Bilateral trade has reached £2.2 billion, while UK Export Finance has raised support for Guyana to £3.5 billion. Regional Resilience: Philippine economic planning chief Arsenio Balisacan urged countries to strengthen trade and investment links, citing AI, advanced manufacturing and digital services as potential growth drivers.

Growth Watch: India’s Finance Ministry estimates second-quarter growth at 7.35%, but warns that high crude prices and global uncertainty could fuel inflation. Global Economy: Eurozone output rose 0.4% in Q3, while Germany grew just 0.2% as exports weakened; France’s economy contracted 0.1% amid falling investment and sluggish trade. Trade & Investment: Canada and the EU are set to deepen digital cooperation, while India and Poland aim to double bilateral trade by 2030. Critical Minerals: US-linked bidders, including Fluor, are competing to develop Kenya’s Mrima Hill deposit after two Chinese firms withdrew; a decision is expected within three weeks. Business Costs: Kenyan transport operators warn steep fuel prices are curbing travel and sales, adding pressure on businesses and households. Local Enterprise: Cambodia’s Commerce Ministry and youth federation will host a November expo to promote locally made goods and small businesses.

Growth and Inflation: India’s finance ministry estimates second-quarter growth at 7.35%, but warns higher crude prices and El Niño risks could keep inflation elevated. U.S. Economy: GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized pace in the third quarter, while inflation accelerated to 3.6% and real disposable income fell 0.3% in September. Trade and Investment: Britain will require overseas defence contractors winning selected deals worth more than £50 million to deliver jobs, investment or skills in the UK. Canada is also pursuing closer EU ties as U.S. trade pressure pushes it to diversify partnerships. Ontario Finances: The province now forecasts a $16.9 billion deficit this year and says it will not balance its books until 2029-30, citing tariffs and slower growth. Colombia’s Fiscal Push: The government proposed a package to cut spending by about 15% and raise revenue, warning the deficit could reach 9.4% of GDP in 2027 without action.

Malaysia Growth: The economy grew 5.3% in the third quarter and 5.5% in the first nine months. The government expects full-year growth above 5%, with 2027 growth forecast at 4.2%–5.2%. Moldova Investment: The government unveiled 912 priority projects under its EU-backed Growth Plan, spanning infrastructure, energy and digital services. A proposed €1.2 billion Ungheni–Chișinău highway aims to improve trade links and attract investment, while officials plan broad reforms of state-owned firms. Trade: India’s commerce minister said a prospective US trade deal would protect farmers and other sensitive interests, though details have yet to be released. Separately, US importers are shifting suppliers amid tariff uncertainty. India Outlook: Retail trade led services growth in August, up 19.9% year on year, while the Finance Ministry warned that higher oil prices and El Niño could keep inflation under pressure. UK Markets: Government borrowing costs eased after the budget, as investors welcomed plans that avoided a sharp change in fiscal policy.

Monetary Policy: The Fed held interest rates steady, with two officials dissenting. It also plans fewer scheduled rate decisions in 2028, potentially slowing the pace of policy changes. Trade: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa isn’t ready to finalize a U.S. trade deal, while Canada signed a trade agreement with the UAE as it seeks new markets. China Financing: The country’s policy banks completed an 800 billion yuan funding push, targeting emerging industries and projects involving private investment. Global Finance: The IMF chief has proposed China’s Vice Finance Minister Liao Min for a deputy managing director role as the fund confronts trade fragmentation and debt pressures. AI and Industry: U.S. goods imports hit a record in September, driven partly by AI infrastructure demand, widening the trade deficit. Ghana also launched a pharmaceutical policy to lift local medicine production and cut import dependence.

Digital Economy: Malaysia’s digital economy is projected to reach US$48 billion this year, growing 20%—the fastest pace in Southeast Asia alongside Vietnam—as e-commerce and business use of AI expand. Trade: Canada and the UAE have signed a trade agreement as Ottawa seeks new markets beyond the US, while Türkiye’s September trade deficit narrowed 25.8% year on year to US$5.16 billion as exports outpaced imports. Investment Climate: Six in 10 Belgian nuclear-sector companies are delaying investment amid uncertainty over government energy plans, putting jobs and billions in annual turnover at stake. Economic Strain: Iran’s labor ministry warns continued contraction could push 1.4 million people out of the workforce; official figures show 700,000 jobs lost and inflation near 90%. UK Budget: The government is preparing its first budget under Prime Minister Andy Burnham amid high inflation, rising energy bills and public debt above £3 trillion.

Trade: Canada and the UAE signed a free-trade deal after 47 days of talks, as Ottawa seeks new markets; Canada-U.S. negotiations, meanwhile, have made “limited progress.” Growth: South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter, lifted by semiconductor exports, while India’s growth is expected to lose momentum. Rates: Pakistan raised its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 12% amid inflation and oil-price risks. Textile exporters and builders warn higher borrowing costs could curb investment and competitiveness. UK Budget: Two-thirds of Britons expect the economy to worsen, and 70% anticipate tax increases ahead of Wednesday’s budget. Investment: Australia conditionally approved $180 million for a rare-earths and mineral-sands mine in western Victoria, adding to $360 million committed to the project. Fiji Outlook: The World Bank expects growth to slow to 2.1% in 2026 and warns rising debt and fuel costs are squeezing the government’s room to respond to shocks.

State-Owned Firms: Malaysia plans legislation to tighten governance of government-linked companies and investment firms, with clearer limits on executives’ powers following past scandals. Trade and Investment: India and the Netherlands discussed market access and supply chains at a business forum attended by about 200 participants; a separate India-US trade portal has attracted 3,500 registrations, with officials pitching it to smaller exporters. Sri Lanka Recovery: Colombo approved a $100 million Asian Development Bank loan for a programme aimed at economic resilience and inclusive opportunities. Growth and Rates: South Korea’s economy grew 1% in the third quarter, driven by semiconductor exports. In the US, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says the Federal Reserve should hold rates, warning that a hike could compound risks to growth. Albania Outlook: The World Bank expects 3.4% growth this year and says trade reforms could raise the economy’s size by as much as 10% over the medium term. South Africa Industry: The automotive aftermarket generated R933 billion in trade in 2025 and supported more than 310,000 jobs; officials are calling for more local production and investment.

Monetary Policy: Pakistan’s central bank raised its key rate by 0.5 percentage point to 12%, citing energy-driven inflation risks and uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. US-Canada Trade: Talks have intensified, but Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada is holding to its demands and progress depends on Washington moving closer to Ottawa’s position. China Trade Rules: Beijing is seeking public comment on draft rules that could restrict trade, investment or entry for foreign entities accused of threatening Chinese trade secrets. Cost of Living: Ahead of its Budget, the UK government plans to remove tariffs on more than 100 products, including some foods, and make a higher tax-free mileage allowance permanent. Brazil’s Economy: Lula’s election victory brings promises to invest in digital, green and creative industries, as markets react sharply to the result. Trade Ties: Qatar and Uzbekistan say bilateral trade grew more than 30% in 2025 as they discuss expanding investment and private-sector cooperation.

China’s Economy: GDP growth accelerated to 4.5% in the third quarter, with September exports up 36.3%. But weak retail sales and falling investment show that booming trade has yet to translate into stronger domestic demand. Pakistan’s Rates: The central bank raised its policy rate by half a point to 12% as high energy prices and regional tensions worsened inflation risks. Trade and Investment: Export Development Canada and Türk Eximbank signed a pact to help businesses pursue projects in markets including Africa and Central Asia. India also extended export support through March 2027, offering 95% risk coverage for eligible shipments facing disrupted trade routes.

Trade Costs: Ottawa’s counter-tariffs on US imports are costing Canadian consumers an estimated $100 million a week and adding about 0.25% to prices, economist Trevor Tombe told MPs, questioning the economic case for retaliation. Global Trade: At Doha’s World Trade Forum, WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said goods and services trade reached $35 trillion last year and goods trade grew 3.5% in the first half of 2026. She urged investment in shipping routes and infrastructure to make supply chains more resilient. Energy & Prices: Brent crude has topped $117 a barrel amid tensions in West Asia, raising risks for consumers and businesses. In Israel, the expiry of a temporary fuel-tax cut after the election could push gasoline above NIS 9 a litre. Public Investment: Mozambique plans to add 3.6 billion meticais ($56.5 million) to its 2026 public-investment budget, directing funds mainly to infrastructure damaged by floods. Business Climate: Pakistani business groups warn a rate hike could deepen pressure on firms and jobs, urging the central bank to hold its policy rate at 11.5%.

Sanctions and Markets: Israel’s central bank rebuked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to use cryptocurrency to evade possible sanctions, warning that protecting trade ties—not bypassing restrictions—is vital to the economy. Investment: Qatar opened the three-day World Investment Forum in Doha, where officials warned that trade and long-term investment depend on peace and stability. Interest Rates: City economists say markets are overestimating Bank of England rate rises; they doubt rates will reach 4.75% by next summer as higher energy costs have yet to spread sharply to other prices. Trade: Russia-India trade has risen more than 20% this year, according to a Russian lawmaker, as both governments push to deepen ties. Growth and Technology: Cambodia is prioritising small-scale manufacturing and higher-value food processing as tourism weakness and rising costs weigh on growth; meanwhile, concerns over AI investment and data-centre energy demand are adding to U.S. economic uncertainty.

EU-China Trade: European Parliament trade officials head to China this week amid a goods-and-services deficit nearing €1 billion a day. They plan to press Beijing on market access, industrial overcapacity and rare-earth supplies. Thailand-EU Deal: Thailand’s foreign minister says a free-trade agreement with the EU could be concluded by year-end, potentially boosting trade and investment. Nigeria’s Economy: President Bola Tinubu launched his re-election campaign promising recovery, but subsidy cuts and currency reforms have driven up living costs, putting economic hardship at the centre of the 2027 race. Business Costs: Pakistan’s communications minister says borrowing at 25% interest is crippling firms and has urged banks to consider rescheduling loans to help industry recover. U.S. Outlook: Inflation, consumer confidence and corporate earnings will shape a busy week for markets, as high prices and trade uncertainty weigh on households and businesses. Trade Logistics: Ghana’s transport minister called for faster, more digital port operations and stronger road and rail links to strengthen the country’s role as a West African trade hub.