AGP Executive Report

UK Inflation Watch: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill urged policymakers not to get complacent as CPI stays above target, warning that past “too-easy” policy left inflation too high for too long. UK Politics & Economic Strategy: Labour PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham is set to unveil a devolution-first economic agenda, aiming to push decisions and budgets to regions while boosting reindustrialisation and housebuilding. Middle East Trade Shock: Fresh US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz have rattled markets and oil prices, with a fragile ceasefire framework now looking shaky. China-Japan Trade Security: China added 20 Japanese entities to an export watchlist tied to dual-use risks, escalating rare-earth and economic-security tensions. US-China Tech Controls: Apple asked the US government for permission to buy CXMT DRAM, after US restrictions made licenses likely to be denied—raising pressure on device costs. India Trade Execution: India-UK trade pact implementation starts July 15, but experts say real gains will depend on business readiness, supply-chain alignment, and compliance capacity. Pakistan Pharma Crackdown: Pakistan announced a medicine barcode system to go live within 60 days to improve traceability and curb counterfeit drugs. Regional Industrial Push: Malaysia’s Kedah reported RM1.4bn in approved investments via 50 projects, betting on hi-tech parks and green industrial zones to spread jobs beyond cities.

Global Macro & Rates: The BIS warns that rising public debt, supply shocks, and stubborn inflation—plus the sustainability risks of the AI boom—are pressuring policymakers to keep fiscal and financial foundations solid. US Immigration Policy: The US homeland security secretary told migrants on temporary protected status to apply for permanent residence or leave, after a Supreme Court ruling opened the door to ending protections for large groups. Middle East Trade & Shipping: Iran and the US traded new strikes tied to Strait of Hormuz passage rules, as ceasefire hopes fade and both sides accuse the other of violating terms. APEC Tourism & Digital Growth: APEC tourism ministers in Macao pushed “digital innovation” and better connectivity to boost regional tourism and SME competitiveness. Philippines Outlook: Capital Economics expects the Philippines’ recovery to stay sluggish, forecasting 3% growth in 2026 below government targets amid weak confidence and tight fiscal policy. India Trade Diplomacy: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal leads business talks in Greece to expand trade, investment, and startup links, building on momentum from the UK. Energy & Investment: Egypt met Norway’s Scatec on a potential $5bn expansion in renewables, desalination, and clean-energy data centers. Infrastructure: India’s Chennai–Bengaluru expressway nears completion, aiming to cut travel time sharply by July 2026.

US–Iran Escalation: Fresh strikes and counter-strikes are again testing a fragile ceasefire, with both sides accusing each other of violations and warning of tighter enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz—raising risks for shipping and energy prices. India–US Trade Push: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says Trump is likely to visit India in early 2027 as a long-awaited trade deal nears completion, with cooperation expanding across energy, defence and tech. UK Leadership & Growth Constraints: Andy Burnham’s rise to replace Keir Starmer could be politically smoother than economically—he may still be boxed in by Labour’s platform and inherited policy choices. IMF Support for Congo: The IMF approved a new $350m disbursement for the Democratic Republic of Congo, tied to reforms, governance upgrades and climate resilience funding. Gender Budget, Implementation Gap: Bangladesh’s gender-responsive budget boosts allocations, but experts point to chronic underspending and structural barriers that keep women’s economic participation lagging. Digital Economy Outreach: Malaysia’s communications ministry plans more community outreach via NADI, pushing training for online income like selling products and becoming TikTok affiliates. MSME Focus in Nigeria: Nigeria’s government highlights MSME awards and new support steps, framing small businesses as the backbone for jobs and growth. Tourism Policy Pressure: Pakistan faces a tourism trade deficit, with analysts urging visa, infrastructure and promotion reforms to unlock export earnings.

Trade & Diplomacy: B.C. Premier David Eby heads to China to cut dependence on the U.S., aiming to double trade and push deals in lumber, agriculture and LNG. Energy & Security: Iran and the U.S. trade fresh strikes after accusations of ceasefire violations, while a tanker is reported hit in the Strait of Hormuz—raising shipping and oil-risk concerns. Central Banking & Rule of Law: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pivotal policy and legal tests, with the U.S. Supreme Court expected to rule on whether a Fed governor can be fired “for cause.” Housing & Industrial Policy: UK housing plans reportedly include a state-owned developer to tackle low building rates, as officials weigh how to finance and scale supply. Small Business & Jobs: Nigeria’s Tinubu signs the NIMC Act and approves free corporate registration for 250,000 MSMEs, while officials tout MSME awards as proof of an enabling environment. Market Access: Ghana opens a Trade House in Philadelphia to boost non-traditional exports, targeting $1bn to the U.S. by end-2026. Water & Agriculture: Idaho’s underground aquifer is rapidly declining, with farmers and water infrastructure framed as the path forward. Green Growth: Sarawak pivots toward a low-carbon, tech-led economy, using AI and carbon trading to value forests as carbon sinks.

US-Iran Shipping Tensions: Washington accused Tehran of attacking a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US strikes on missile/drone sites and Iran retaliatory action—raising fresh risks for a ceasefire that diplomats are trying to lock in. Philippines-Canada Trade Push: President Marcos heads to Canada (July 1–4) to accelerate talks on a Philippines-Canada FTA and a Canada-ASEAN FTA, aiming for completion this year. US-India Deal Nears Finish: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says the trade agreement is down to a “handful of issues,” mainly legal language, with signing expected in coming weeks/months. Energy & Industry Policy: Japan and India plan a biogas vehicle framework to expand CNG output for cleaner transport; Hungary ends its emergency fuel price cap as global markets stabilise. UK Savings Shake-Up: Britain confirms ISA reforms from April 2027, including a 22% charge on interest in cash held inside Stocks & Shares ISAs and a lower Cash ISA limit for under-65s. AI & Markets: US stocks slipped as AI costs and possible IPO delays weighed sentiment, while Anthropic won partial permission to redeploy its Mythos model.

Trade & Tariffs: Trump escalated the digital tax fight by warning Europe of 100% tariffs on exports if countries levy taxes on U.S. tech services, raising the risk of a fresh trade clash. EU–China Auto Tensions: Despite higher EU trade barriers, Chinese plug-in hybrid and EV exports to Europe surged, underscoring how protectionism is colliding with demand. Free-Trade Bloc Expansion: CPTPP members agreed on preliminary talks to add Indonesia, the Philippines and the UAE, with accession tied to tariff cuts and IP standards. Energy & Commodities: Iraq’s oil ministry denied any plan to leave OPEC, saying any quota issues will be handled through OPEC’s technical process. Public Finance & Housing: A government doubled mortgage interest tax relief for first-time homeowners, aiming to boost disposable income and homebuilding. Digital Infrastructure: Ukraine’s economy ministry signed deals with Kyivstar/VEON to explore a sovereign, AI-ready data center as part of recovery financing. Industrial Policy: Odisha launched “Go East” to speed investment and clearances for eastern India manufacturing. Labor & Jobs: Ghana lawmakers urged keeping “1D1F” to tackle youth unemployment, arguing the 24-hour economy hasn’t delivered expected jobs. Disaster & Sanctions: Venezuela’s earthquakes killed about 235 and injured 4,300; the U.S. Treasury moved to waive some sanctions to enable relief transactions. Tech & Aviation: Malaysia showcased a low-altitude economy mini sandbox to test drones and unmanned traffic systems, targeting major GDP and job gains.

India Economic Shock & Energy Hedging: S&P says Iran-war spillovers are India’s worst since 2022, pushing inflation risk and forcing a shift toward longer-term fiscal recalibration, eased foreign investment rules, and tighter energy/labour diversification. US-China Trade Mechanism: China and the US agreed to set up a bilateral trade council to negotiate reciprocal tariff cuts on goods worth $30B+ and formalise a structured dialogue. India-US Trade Deal Timing: Piyush Goyal says the US deal won’t take effect unless India gets a clear tariff advantage over competitors, with implementation tied to tariff-system changes ahead of deadlines. India-UK Trade Rollout: India’s CETA and the Double Contribution Convention are set to start on July 15, with both sides pitching it as a template for future trade deals. Fuel Relief in the Pacific: Fiji expects major fuel price cuts from July as oil prices ease with US-Iran de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening. Nepal-India Tea Dispute: Nepal’s tea industry restarted after assurances, but producers warn India’s stricter import testing could keep delays and factory shutdowns going. South Asia Trade Push: Bangladesh’s PM urges China to cut its trade gap and diversify imports; China backs Bangladesh’s new government and promises high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. South Africa-China Regulation Talks: Pretoria and Beijing plan regulatory MoUs to deepen trade and investment, including an early harvest push via SACU. Labour & Safety Flashpoint: A Kolkata warehouse collapse killed 11 workers, spotlighting weak enforcement in informal warehousing. Human Rights Meets Trade Risk: South Korea’s “salt farm slave” case returns as trafficking victims are recognised, raising scrutiny that could spill into trade and compliance. Africa Trade Resilience: Afreximbank reports Africa’s 2025 growth at 4.5% and trade at $1.5T, but flags a $74B trade finance gap and logistics disruptions.

Public Finance & Growth: The Philippines says it will speed up infrastructure spending in H2 2026 after cautious fund releases tied to last year’s flood-control scandal dragged growth. Budget Reform: Bangladesh’s finance minister says Dhaka is moving toward a more inclusive, modern budget model to broaden participation in the economy. Local Accountability & Sanitation: Ghana’s sanitation stakeholders are urging the Local Government Ministry to tighten oversight of sanitation delivery, including publishing KPI performance for MMDCEs and addressing strained ties with service providers. Culture Policy Access: Ghana’s revised National Cultural Policy is now available for free online, aiming to boost transparency and stakeholder buy-in. Trade Diplomacy: China and the US agreed to set up a trade council to discuss reciprocal tariff cuts and related cooperation. US Industrial Policy Scrutiny: US senators ask GAO to investigate whether Commerce officials properly managed the Hollings MEP program. Energy Deals: Ukraine says more than €1B in energy financing agreements will be signed in Gdańsk to support winter readiness. AI & Economy: Stanford economist Chad Jones joins Anthropic to assess AI risks and economic impacts. Global Markets: UNCTAD warns geopolitics and energy volatility are weighing more heavily on global trade and finance than trade policy alone. Cuba Reforms: Cuba rushed sweeping economic reforms to expand private activity, loosen price controls, and open parts of the economy to investment. Infrastructure Concessions: Nigeria handed over Enugu’s Akanu Ibiam airport to a private consortium under a PPP for expansion and management.

BRICS Energy Diplomacy: India kicks off the 11th BRICS Energy Ministers’ meeting in Gurugram, pushing “Energy for All” and resilience as members juggle security, affordability, and clean power. Infrastructure Push: PM Modi’s PRAGATI review greenlit projects worth over Rs 30,000 crore, aiming to speed roads, power, industrial corridors and metro links. US-India Trade Tension: A new explainer revisits why the India-U.S. bilateral trade deal has slipped, citing stalled talks over agriculture/dairy and India’s Russia oil purchases. Monetary Policy Clash Risk: Reuters reports Japan’s draft economic blueprint urges the BOJ to back private demand and keep borrowing costs low, raising the odds of tighter government-central bank coordination. Fuel Cost Shock in the Pacific: Pacific finance ministers and private sector leaders discuss long-term fixes to imported-fuel dependence as Iran-U.S. talks add uncertainty. Aviation Costs Watch: India’s civil aviation minister says airlines may face fare/charge changes only if ATF price stability holds, alongside a Rs 10,000 crore stabilisation fund. Housing Market Reform (UK): The UK plans faster home sales by making sellers prepare key documents earlier, targeting shorter timelines and fewer failed deals.

Trade & Investment: Malaysia reported net FDI up 41.2% to RM65.9bn in 2025, while direct investment abroad moderated to RM12.4bn outflows—signals of a healthier external position and investor confidence. Quick Commerce: Flipkart and Amazon are accelerating “quick commerce” in India, pushing deeper into smaller cities as they battle for share in a fast-growing delivery market. Central Banking: Bank of Canada officials released deliberations showing they were surprised by a Q1 contraction but stayed on hold at 2.25%, citing resilience signals and ongoing uncertainty. Energy & Resilience: OPEC Fund leaders stressed building economies resilient to global shocks, while OPEC Forum discussions highlighted supply-chain readiness as a policy priority. Geopolitics & Trade Routes: China urged early restoration of normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, linking it to stability for global supply chains. Policy & Regulation: Russia clarified platform employment criteria from Oct 1, 2026, tightening how “one-time” work is distinguished from employment-like arrangements. Illicit Trade: A Kantar study found Ukraine’s illicit tobacco share rising to 19.8% in April, raising estimated tax losses. Infrastructure: Ireland announced €228m for all-island rail connectivity to improve reliability and cross-border links.

UK Politics & Business Confidence: Andy Burnham is emerging as the frontrunner to replace Keir Starmer, but Labour MPs are weighing whether to push for a leadership contest—especially amid market worries about his economic approach. India–US Trade: High-level talks in New Delhi aim to salvage an interim trade pact before July 24 as the US temporary 10% tariff nears expiry; both sides are recalibrating after US tariff changes and a Supreme Court ruling. Energy & Investment Facilitation: South Africa’s “Energy One-Stop Shop” push is framed as a way to cut regulatory friction and speed projects from concept to generation. Fuel Policy Backlash: India’s government and petroleum ministry dismissed social-media claims about E20 ethanol-blended petrol, saying it’s safe and won’t break vehicle insurance validity. Inflation Outlook: Australia’s underlying inflation remains sticky even as headline inflation cools on lower petrol prices, keeping rate-hike risk alive. Digital Trade in the Turkic Region: Türkiye completed its ratification of the OTS Digital Economy Partnership Agreement, designed to reduce barriers to e-commerce and cross-border data activity. Retail & Jobs: Flipkart plans to expand quick commerce with hundreds more neighbourhood warehouses ahead of its IPO. Public Health Governance: Ghana will make sanitation a key performance indicator for local executives, targeting open defecation and waste management gaps.

UK Politics & Markets: Andy Burnham is set to receive government briefings as Keir Starmer resigns, with Burnham signaling “business-friendly socialism,” possible partial renationalization, and a push to cut bills—raising questions for investors on spending and debt. Trade & Sanctions: The US imposed fresh sanctions on Cuban state firms tied to GAESA, a move analysts say will deter investment and worsen Cuba’s economic strain. US-India Trade Reset: India and the US held high-level talks to salvage an interim trade pact after tariff changes, aiming to wrap work before July 24. Customs & Illicit Finance: A customs-focused push highlights how trade-based money laundering and sanctions evasion exploit shipping documents, requiring tighter public-private coordination. Energy Security: Albania signed an agreement with Italy and Eni to study oil and gas supply and storage reserves to reduce shortage risk. Regional Economy: Pakistan and Iran agreed to accelerate agricultural trade, targeting tangible outcomes for farmers and consumers. Digital Policy: Qatar launched a scholarship-linked digital transformation programme to build national tech talent for strategic sectors. Public Services & Cost Pressure: A report warns official growth figures don’t match lived realities—people face inflation, weak jobs, and uneven service delivery.

UK Politics & Markets: Keir Starmer quit as prime minister and Labour leader, setting up Andy Burnham as the likely successor and raising fresh questions about continuity on economic and defense planning. Trade Diplomacy: India-US talks resumed as Piyush Goyal and USTR Jamieson Greer move the first phase of a trade pact toward final touches, while Congress warns Modi against signing a deal it says harms farmers and locks in tariff risk. Energy & Shipping: Malaysia urged a “future-ready” maritime economy as the Strait of Malacca’s strategic role grows, highlighting port upgrades, automation, and secure corridors. Steel Policy: South Korea said it reached a broad consensus with the EU on steel quota cuts, aiming to limit the planned reduction and avoid free-trade fallout. Financial Integrity: Indonesia’s finance minister defended a law shielding Danantara bond purchases from prosecution, arguing it brings money into the system despite money-laundering concerns. Public Finance: Argentina authorized up to $5bn in external borrowing with expanded executive powers, including dispute handling in US courts. Labor & Growth: Indonesia forecasts nearly 3.88m green-economy jobs in 2026, tied to downstreaming and renewables. Tech & Security: Tata Electronics said it detected a cyber incident after claims it exposed Apple and Tesla trade secrets.

UK Political Transition: Keir Starmer resigned as prime minister and Labour leader, setting up a fast-moving leadership handover likely to elevate Andy Burnham within weeks, with economic frustration and policy uncertainty hanging over the transition. Canada Energy & Food Security: Canada launched a National Food Security Strategy backed by $3B over 10 years to boost competition and lower prices, while Energy Minister Tim Hodgson unveiled a nuclear push aiming for up to 10 new reactors, more uranium exports, and grid expansion. Trade & Industrial Deals: Canada and Croatia pledged deeper ties, including a drone manufacturing agreement to expand defence-linked production; Tata Electronics reported a cyber incident tied to leaked Apple and Tesla component designs. Inflation Watch: Fed policy focus remains on inflation expectations, with markets tracking how quickly price pressures could re-ignite. EU Fisheries Pressure: NGOs urged the EU not to reopen the Common Fisheries Policy, warning that big reforms could weaken sustainability safeguards. Middle East Infrastructure: Iraq named an acting ports chief for a three-month term tied to the Grand Al-Faw Port project. Africa Policy & Growth: Curaçao’s central bank flagged the informal economy as a drag on taxes and productivity; Zambia’s farmers’ show renewed calls to raise FISP support.

US-India Trade Talks: USTR Jamieson Greer is set to visit New Delhi for multiple rounds with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as both sides push to advance a bilateral trade agreement ahead of a looming US tariff deadline. US-Iran Diplomacy & Energy: Iran’s foreign minister says US talks in Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar mediators, have made progress toward easing pressure on Iran’s economy and ending Lebanon fighting, while the US energy secretary signals Iran could resume oil sales—raising stakes for global prices and Strait of Hormuz risk. Geopolitics Meets Supply Chains: A new focus on maritime chokepoints highlights how disruptions at narrow routes can ripple through energy, manufacturing, and consumer costs worldwide. China-US Trade Retaliation: China imposed export controls on 56 US firms and barred 46 from government procurement in response to US military-linked entity listings, keeping tech and defense tensions simmering. Commodity Policy Watch: Traders await a potential Trump decision on refined copper tariffs, which could shift prices and global copper trade flows. Industrial Revival: Nepal moves to revive the long-closed Hetauda Textile Industry with renewed inspections and plans to restart the state factory. Regional Growth Outlook: Ghana’s economy is projected to grow 5.9–6.1% in 2026, supported by infrastructure and gold mining expansion.

Trade & Tariffs: The US has opened a trade probe into Germany over alleged “unfair” drug pricing, raising the risk of new tariffs as Berlin tries to rein in medicine costs. Geopolitics & Energy: Germany’s defence minister blamed Donald Trump for the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, warning Europe’s energy supply and recovery depend on reopening safe passage. Middle East Talks: US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland are paired with public threats, with both sides warning each other as Lebanon tensions flare. Monetary Policy: India’s RBI is widely expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25%, with easing global risks shifting focus back to monsoon, food inflation and crude prices. Investment Facilitation: Bangladesh is pushing a centralized online one-stop investment service to speed licensing and approvals, including provisional licences for early operations. Digital Economy: Nigeria’s fintech push is centered on expanding digital payments to drive growth and inclusion, while the IMF warns electricity subsidies and below-cost tariffs are draining Nigeria’s finances. Industrial Policy: India’s space sector is projected to grow to $40–45bn in a decade as private participation expands. Business Climate Reform: Bangladesh’s finance minister says a deregulation taskforce will roll out ministry dashboards to track project delivery and separate tax policy from collection. Regional Growth: Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party won another big parliamentary majority, backing claims of strong food security and fast growth.