AGP Executive Report

UK Politics & Economy: Andy Burnham heads into Downing Street with a “good growth in every postcode” pledge, but faces a cost-of-living squeeze, stretched public services, and a tougher global backdrop. UK Industrial Policy: The government’s plan to renationalise British Steel aims to protect strategic supply chains and jobs after talks with Jingye stalled. Middle East & Trade: US tariff threats tied to Canadian wildfire smoke add uncertainty to North American trade, while Ukraine faces renewed strikes after drone attacks on Russian e-commerce warehouses. Asia-Pacific Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet ASEAN foreign ministers in Manila as Washington seeks to deepen its Indo-Pacific partnership. Forex Liberalisation (South Korea): South Korea will widen won trading access for foreigners via a new 24-hour Bank of Korea network, starting pilots in September. Energy & Cost of Living (Malaysia): Malaysia expands subsidised diesel controls (SKDS) with fleet-card rollout for companies in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan. Food Prices (US): An economist links higher produce costs—like 32% lettuce and 20% tomato jumps—to weather shocks, labor and energy costs, and trade-policy fallout. Labour Markets (Thailand): Thailand extends migrant-worker grace periods to ease shortages through Dec 2027. Development Finance (Pakistan): Finance Minister Aurangzeb visits Washington for talks on trade, finance and investment, including a potential bilateral trade framework. Public Services & Infrastructure (Nepal): Nepal prioritises power-grid upgrades to raise electricity consumption and support EVs while reducing LPG use. Illegal Trade Crackdown (Guyana): The Private Sector Commission steps up training and equipment for frontline enforcement against counterfeit and illicit goods. Agribusiness Support (Bangladesh): Loan waivers and tree-sapling support target thousands of farmers in Boda to ease pressure and boost food security.

UK Politics & Growth Strategy: Andy Burnham was confirmed as Britain’s next prime minister, with a push for big decentralisation and a “bottom-up” approach to revive anaemic growth and tackle the cost-of-living. Energy & Industry Policy: Germany’s solar industry warned that proposed cuts to small-solar subsidies could collapse investment and threaten jobs, as the Renewable Energy Act and grid rules move through drafts. Tax & Illicit Markets: Economist Arthur Laffer said the Philippines’ repeated tobacco tax hikes may be backfiring—raising illicit cigarette trade and hurting revenue control. Fuel Pricing Reform: Pakistan’s petroleum minister defended a shift to daily fuel price adjustments, arguing it will curb abuse and reduce political interference. Digital Economy Regulation: Nigeria unveiled Phase 2 of its Legal Basis project for data protection, aiming to strengthen compliance with the 2023 data protection law. Trade & Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to Manila for ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings, while Mexico’s president plans to attend the World Cup final amid ongoing US trade tensions. Infrastructure & Logistics: Ghana said Keta Port and Ho Airport projects are on track, with Keta Port’s environmental permit granted and construction nearing completion. Public Health & Social Protection: Nigeria’s health insurance coverage remains low, with stakeholders urging faster enrolment to prevent households from falling into medical debt.

UK Politics & Energy: Labour’s Andy Burnham is set to become prime minister on July 20, with reporting saying he may quickly back new North Sea drilling—an early test after Labour’s 2024 pledge to avoid new licences. Trade & Tariffs: Brazil condemned new US tariffs as a WTO challenge, while the US Trade Representative said a fresh tariff decision is expected in weeks. EU Trade Strategy: France and Germany are pushing a joint roadmap by September to tackle China trade imbalances and speed up EU trade defenses. Middle East Risk: US and Iran traded another round of Gulf attacks as oil prices rose, keeping shipping and energy markets on edge. Digital Economy: Taipei warned consumers after an e-commerce furniture site shut down without notice, highlighting enforcement gaps in consumer protection. AI & Governance: OpenAI released GPT-5.6 after government review, intensifying AI competition and oversight debates. Public Finance & Jobs: Pakistan reviewed capital market reforms to deepen corporate debt markets and cut reliance on bank lending. Healthcare Spending: Malaysia approved 66,312 new MOH posts worth RM6.7bn to expand and upgrade public healthcare capacity.

IMF Watch: The IMF wrapped up a July 7–16 visit to the UAE, praising the country’s resilience amid Middle East turmoil and highlighting continued financial-sector growth and preparedness for regional shocks. Energy & Trade Risks: Russia warned that any closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait would hit global trade, especially oil flows, as the Strait of Hormuz remains a central pressure point in the US-Iran standoff. US Fiscal Stress: With US debt near $39T and net interest costs running toward $1T a year, Treasury-market stress is rising as heavy borrowing compresses the safety premium. Fuel Price Controls: The Dominican Republic kept main fuel prices unchanged for July 18–24, using subsidies to blunt inflation after Middle East-linked oil volatility. UK Political Economy: Labour leader Andy Burnham outlined a push for “bottom-up” growth via deeper devolution, aiming to tackle cost-of-living pressure and weak growth. Digital Economy & AI: Cambodia joined a Shanghai-based AI cooperation pact (WAICO), while Moldova’s new cabinet reshuffle signals continued focus on European integration and economic governance. Trade Facilitation: AfCFTA customs modernisation efforts aim to digitise and harmonise border systems to cut delays, but analysts say more firms must trade formally to see results.

Growth Watch: Malaysia’s economy accelerated to 5.8% year-on-year in Q2 2026, up from 5.4% in Q1, with services leading while agriculture contracted 3.7%. Public Finance Reform: Malaysia’s Dewan Rakyat passed the National Trust Fund Bill 2026, reshaping KWAN into an intergenerational savings statutory body to bolster long-term reserves. Digital Tax Debate: A new analysis argues digital services taxes can cascade through supply chains and hit low-margin firms hardest, recommending destination-based VAT/GST as a cleaner way to tax digital consumption. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Nigeria’s petrol ex-depot price reportedly jumped from about N1,120 to N1,200 per litre after Dangote shifted fuel sales to dollar payments, raising expectations of higher pump prices. Trade Policy Moves: New Zealand and Switzerland agreed to a Trade and Investment Dialogue covering trade, economic security, e-commerce, investment and sustainability, with a first meeting planned for September. Jobs as the Metric: Ghana’s finance minister urged the statistics service to publish quarterly employment figures, warning against “jobless growth.” Geopolitical Risk: Pakistan warned renewed West Asia tensions could hit its economy, as US-Iran strikes entered a sixth night.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. is set to reshape commodity costs with new/adjusted tariffs on wood, farm machinery, and Brazilian corn ethanol, while Section 122 duties are due to expire around July 24—raising uncertainty for supply chains and retaliation risks. Monetary Policy: Kansas City Fed’s Jeff Schmid warned inflation is “concerning” and not automatically temporary, keeping the door open for a rate move at the July 28–29 Fed meeting. Industrial Policy: The UK completed the nationalisation of British Steel to protect steelmaking and jobs, with officials saying the next step is modernisation and higher productivity. Data & Governance: Malaysia passed its Statistics Bill 2026 to modernise its national statistical system, aiming for more coordinated, credible data for policymaking. Local Execution: Guyana’s Kitty Market rehabilitation is still delayed, with the local government minister pressing vendors and utilities on stalled electricity works. Trade Diplomacy: New Zealand and Switzerland agreed to launch a Trade and Investment Dialogue covering trade, e-commerce, investment, and sustainability. Risk & Resilience: Zambia is seeking a new IMF programme by year-end to unlock investment after its prior support ended in January. Fraud Watch: Australia’s regulator says “pump and dump” scams are increasingly targeting near-retirement savers.

AI Infrastructure & Data Centers: Japan-backed NVIDIA and Noetra will launch a “Vera Rubin” national physical-AI factory, aiming to power multimodal models for manufacturing, logistics, healthcare and more. Energy & Water Governance: Malaysia says it will only approve data centre projects after checking power and water capacity, prioritising residents and using surplus capacity. Trade & Technology Diplomacy: The EU and India agreed to deepen cooperation on resilient value chains, market access, standards and clean technologies through the Trade and Technology Council. Geopolitics & Supply Chains: Malaysia’s economy minister warned businesses not to be complacent after Iran’s renewed Hormuz closure, citing risks to oil prices, shipping costs, raw materials and food. Tariffs: The US will impose 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports from July 22 over alleged unfair trade practices, with Brazil disputing the claims. UK Industrial Policy: Britain took British Steel into public ownership to protect UK steelmaking and supply chains. Regional Development Finance: Zambia launched a $49.9m IFAD-backed rural financial inclusion project targeting 300,000 producers and up to 1.8m rural residents. South Asia Utilities: Nepal ordered agencies to clear unmanaged electricity, telecom and internet cables in Kathmandu within set timelines.

UK Trade Controls: Trade minister Chris Bryant says the UK is working on a plan to ban all goods and services linked to “illegal” Israeli settlements, moving beyond labeling and targeting everything from mortgages to legal and accountancy support. South Africa Energy Risk: Analysts warn renewed US-Iran strikes could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up oil costs that hit import-dependent South Africa. India Industrial Policy: India’s Cabinet approved a National Investment Policy for Urea-2026, aiming for 8–9 gas-based plants and 10 million tonnes capacity, with pricing and FX-risk rules to cut costs. India-UK Trade Deal: CETA is now operational, with $140m shipped on day one at zero duty, plus a social security agreement to support temporary workers. China Growth Watch: China’s Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3%, raising pressure for stimulus as property weakness and weak demand weigh on momentum. Ghana Private Sector Push: Ghana’s chamber says the “24-Hour Economy” could transform the economy if implementation is strong, not just policy design. Ghana Informal Trade: A new survey puts Ghana’s informal cross-border trade at GH¢31bn in 2025, exceeding formal trade. Bangladesh Textiles: BTMA met Bangladesh Bank to seek stimulus access, faster LC payments, and sector-specific interest-rate support. Infrastructure & Jobs: India approved shipbuilding and repair projects in Porbandar and Vadinar; Ghana and other regions also moved on market and bridge repairs to restore local economic activity. US Monetary Read: The Fed Beige Book reports modest improvement in activity across most districts, with uncertainty tied to fuel costs.

India-UK Trade: The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and a Social Security pact officially took effect, with India getting duty-free access for nearly 99% of exports and tariff cuts expected to boost sectors from textiles to services. EU-India Diplomacy: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met EU leaders in Brussels to push trade, technology cooperation and maritime supply-chain resilience. China Growth Watch: China’s Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3% as weak consumption and a property slump offset export strength, adding pressure for stimulus. Middle East Trade Risk: U.S.-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz escalated, with Trump warning about targeting civilian infrastructure—raising fears for global energy flows. AI Governance: Australia moves to create a dedicated Office of AI to coordinate regulation, investment and security policy across government. Regional Integration: Cambodia’s National Assembly approved new appointments and four ASEAN-related mutual recognition bills to deepen regional economic integration. Digital Trade Corridors: Dubai’s DMCC signed an MoU with Botswana’s exchange group to build a sister-hub commodity corridor. Local Policy Clash: In California’s Imperial Valley, a data-center funding dispute pits a mayor against a regional economic development corporation. Money-Laundering Policy: Sri Lanka’s cabinet approved a 2026-2030 national plan to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing. EV Import Rules: Malaysia’s MITI said it won’t reverse new CBU EV import regulations, citing a balanced approach with local industry goals. Agriculture Stress: A Philippine farmers’ group warned rice output may drop sharply in Q4 2026, blaming policy-driven price pressure, high fertilizer costs and El Niño.

Hormuz Trade Pivot: Trump scrapped a planned 20% Strait of Hormuz levy and will pursue Gulf trade and investment deals instead, while keeping a “FULL Blockade” on Iranian-linked shipping—raising new uncertainty for energy and shipping costs. Endangered Species Act Rollback: The U.S. finalized a narrower “harm” definition under the Endangered Species Act, limiting prohibitions to direct injury or killing and cutting habitat-based enforcement. Trade Policy Tensions: The EU is weighing trade bans on Israeli settlements, with foreign ministers saying the most-supported option is banning trade with illegal settlements; meanwhile, the UK debate also pushes for a settlement import ban. Customs & Supply Chains: The Philippines and Israel signed an AEO mutual recognition arrangement to speed customs clearance and reduce inspections for qualified traders. Regional Growth & Jobs: West Virginia University leads an NSF-backed $321m energy innovation hub; Canada and Quebec backed Montréal student housing with an $8m Build Canada Homes investment. Trade Facilitation & Planning: Western Nevada seeks public input on its 2026-30 economic strategy update, while Malaysia and Thailand pursue a technical fix to a shrimp/sea bass trade dispute. Port Activity: Long Beach hit its third-busiest June on record, signaling continued trade resilience despite tariff uncertainty.

Trade Facilitation: The Philippines and Israel signed an Authorized Economic Operator mutual recognition arrangement to speed customs clearance for accredited traders and cut unnecessary inspections. Manufacturing Costs & Policy: Malaysia’s PM directed Miti and the Economy Ministry to engage plastics manufacturers facing global supply-chain pressure, aiming to ease cost burdens across packaging, E&E, automotive and medical devices. Inflation Pressure: Malaysia reported average household income rose, but cost-of-living hit low-income and working-poor households, with poverty-line and living-cost measures climbing. Border Logistics: Malaysia also discussed using new border ports (including Sanglang and Perlis Inland Port) with Thailand to strengthen logistics and infrastructure links. Credit & Growth Signals: Bank Indonesia said S&P’s BBB stable rating reflects confidence in Indonesia’s macro stability and policy coordination, despite temporary fiscal and external weakening. AI & Jobs: Over 200 economists and tech leaders urged faster AI workforce and policy planning as job disruption could arrive within a few years. Antitrust: India’s Competition Commission fined HP India and resellers for bid rigging on the GeM procurement platform. Trade Data: China’s goods trade rose 16.9% in H1 2026, with imports growing faster than exports. Energy Policy: Indonesia launched mandatory B50 biodiesel, targeting diesel import savings and higher domestic palm-oil value. Public Finance: Ethiopia’s parliament approved €124.6m in concessional loans to fund economic reforms and digital modernization. EU Trade Restrictions: EU foreign ministers debated options to restrict trade in illegal Israeli settlement goods. UK-Switzerland Deal: A new UK-Switzerland free trade agreement includes surcharge-free mobile roaming and tariff relief for food and drink exporters. Civic Engagement: Vermont launched “Vermont Civic Connect” to help businesses and nonprofits share official voting information and encourage election-day volunteering.

AI & Jobs Readiness: More than 200 economists and tech leaders, including Nobel laureates, warn AI could trigger an upheaval bigger than the Industrial Revolution but in a much shorter time, urging governments to build research and policy capacity now. UK Trade & Services: Switzerland and Britain have concluded talks on a modernized free trade deal, expanding services, investment, digital trade and mobility of service providers. UK Space Economy: King Charles opened the UK Space and Defence Gateway at Harwell, aiming to turn research into investment and export-ready capabilities. Malaysia Fiscal/Health Planning: Malaysia says it’s building long-term social protection and healthcare financing to handle “aged nation” pressures without breaking fiscal stability. Malaysia Manufacturing Costs: Prime Minister Anwar directed MITI and the Economy Ministry to engage manufacturers under global supply pressure, with plastics singled out as a key input for multiple industries. Ethiopia Monetary Reform: Ethiopia removed the commercial bank credit growth cap as it advances toward an interest-rate-based system while keeping tight monetary conditions. Bangladesh Trade Logistics: Bangladesh moves to cut port logistics costs and speed cargo clearance, while the Matarbari deep-sea port is set to enable direct calls by larger vessels by 2029. India-US Trade Pushback: India’s commerce minister and the US ambassador both dismissed a report claiming India rejected a “quick trade agreement,” saying talks remain constructive. Cuba Sanctions: The US imposed new sanctions on Cuba’s tourism ministry and state entities over alleged revenue diversion to the regime. Ecuador Shrimp Electrification: Ecuador’s aquaculture chamber and energy ministry signed an MoU to expand electricity access for shrimp operations, aiming to cut costs and boost competitiveness.

Monetary Policy: New Zealand’s RBNZ ended a long pause with a surprise OCR hike to 2.5%, and analysts warn more increases could follow as financial conditions loosen. Industrial Strategy: Zambia says it will resume local vehicle assembly once Kafue’s new Multi-Facility Economic Zone is operational, pairing jobs with road upgrades. Defense Tech: A military production ministry plans an Intel-backed AI and digital upgrade to modernise affiliated manufacturers and production lines. Energy Security: Commentary highlights how cheap drones are exposing energy infrastructure as a new weak spot, while US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty keep oil and shipping risks elevated. Trade & Diplomacy: India is holding out in US trade talks for better tariff terms and protections; EU foreign ministers weigh options to curb trade with illegal Israeli settlements, but unanimity hurdles loom. Regulation & Markets: Alberta’s regulated iGaming market is now live, aiming to pull bettors from grey-market sites. Housing & Policy Reality Check: A Los Angeles analysis argues the city’s “housing shortage” narrative no longer fits the data, pointing to high vacancy and weaker absorption. Ukraine Politics: Zelensky announced a sweeping reshuffle after Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko’s resignation, with war strategy and key alliances in focus.

Ukraine Political Reset: Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stepped down as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a cabinet reshuffle and changes in top law-enforcement leadership, citing a shift in political strategy and the need to prepare for winter. Bangladesh Fiscal & Banking Discipline: Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told parliament that financial discipline is the government’s top priority, pointing to investigations across banks after concerns over irregularities and high default loans in state lenders. Education Investment Push: The same minister urged private universities to reinvest tax savings into education quality, research, innovation, and self-regulation. Middle East Security & Trade Risk: Multiple countries reported attacks tied to renewed US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, raising shipping and energy-market uncertainty. Iraq-US Economic Talks: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi heads to Washington for talks spanning security cooperation and oil, electricity, trade, and investment. Bangladesh Port Disruption: Trade bodies warned flooding at Chattogram port is disrupting shipments and could trigger losses for exporters unless connectivity and charges are quickly addressed. UK Life Sciences Funding Gap: The life sciences sector urged policy continuity and more growth capital to speed innovation into NHS adoption.

US-Iran Escalation: The Strait of Hormuz was closed again after fresh strikes, with Qatar reporting injuries from interception debris and regional states issuing alerts—raising new risks for global shipping and energy prices. Trade Diplomacy: Pakistan and the US reported “significant progress” on a reciprocal trade agreement after Washington talks, aiming to expand and diversify bilateral trade. EU Sanctions & Trade: EU foreign ministers face pressure over a possible ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements, with decisions still stalled amid political divisions. India–New Zealand Deal: India and New Zealand moved to fast-track a strategic partnership and free trade push, targeting roughly ₹35,000 crore in trade by 2030. Market & Regulation: India’s Supreme Court will hear SEBI’s plea against SAT relief tied to Sahara India Commercial Corporation’s OFCD case. Housing Affordability: Malta’s property prices rose 6.7% in Q1 2026, reigniting debate over whether growth is outpacing affordability. Human Capital & Jobs: Qatar launched “Maharat 2026” summer training to support private-sector nationalisation goals across sectors. Women’s Economic Agenda: Pakistan hosts the OIC women’s ministerial conference, focusing on women’s access to finance, entrepreneurship, tech and decision-making.

Consumer & Competition Policy: Qatar joined a UNCTAD consumer-protection and competition law meeting in Geneva, focusing on product safety, unfair practices, and how to regulate e-commerce and digital markets. Middle East Risk Premium: The US and Iran traded threats as mediators tried to salvage a crumbling interim deal, with demands around keeping the Strait of Hormuz open—raising uncertainty for global shipping and trade. Procurement & Governance: Ghana’s EOCO reportedly showed up at a Health Ministry meeting over unpaid hospital equipment, spotlighting the thin line between contract enforcement and criminal probes. Crypto Property Fight: The Bitcoin Policy Institute moved to block a New York lawsuit seeking ownership of dormant Satoshi-era and Mt. Gox-linked coins, arguing against “abandoned property” claims. Illicit Trade & Tax Policy: Australia’s tobacco tsar warned that cutting cigarette excise won’t stop illicit sales, as organised criminal supply chains keep profits alive. Digital Commerce & Jobs: India’s eSaras expanded rural online selling for 8.99 crore SHG members, using ONDC-enabled buyer apps and logistics to widen market access. Trade & Infrastructure: Canada and Michigan agreed to open the Gordie Howe International Bridge on July 27, backed by a 15-year regional economic development fund tied to bridge profits. Regional Development Zones: Sarawak will create a Sibu Economic Zone with RM1.5bn to attract investment and build higher-value jobs. Labour & Skills: Qatar launched “Maharat 2026” summer training to boost private-sector job readiness for students and children of Qatari women. Population & Human Capital: Pakistan marked World Population Day by linking youth opportunity to health, education, and economic development.