AGP Executive Report

Iran Sanctions: Iran’s leaders admit the economic toll of the U.S. war and “economic isolation,” with foreign trade down sharply and inflation surging, while Tehran vows a strong response and keeps pressure on the Strait of Hormuz. US-Canada Trade Fight: Trump’s new Canada tariffs lean on a little-used 1930-era legal power, raising fresh questions about whether the move can survive court challenges. G20 Focus: The U.S. is pushing “economic growth” to the center of the G20 agenda as Treasury seeks broader support for isolating Iran’s economy. India-Central Asia Trade Push: PM Modi’s Tashkent talks with Uzbekistan target deeper cooperation in trade, investment, digital connectivity, defence and energy. India-Chile CEPA: India says it remains committed to finishing CEPA talks with Chile within the year. Nigeria Credit Signal: Moody’s upgraded Nigeria’s outlook to positive, citing reform momentum and stronger external conditions. Housing Affordability Debate: A new argument says affordable housing fails when governments shift costs to developers while construction costs keep rising. Disaster Relief Finance: Nepal’s flood response gets Rs. 40.1m support from NIMB for rescue, relief and rehabilitation. Time Standardization: India notified rules to make IST the common official time reference nationwide.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: U.S. Treasury outlined an “economic D-Day” against Iran, expanding secondary sanctions and targeting digital assets, tech, gold, aviation and shipping—while Iran’s president conceded exports and imports have fallen 25–35% and inflation is rising. Trade War Pressure: Canada-U.S. tariffs keep widening uncertainty for jobs and prices, as Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith heads to meet U.S. officials and warns against using energy as a bargaining chip. Monetary Policy Watch: New Zealand’s RBNZ is expected to lift the OCR again on Sept. 2 after July’s hike, with banks broadly aligned on a move toward 2.75%. Budget Process: India kicked off the 2027–28 Union Budget cycle, setting timelines for revised and budget estimates and noting disinvestment proceeds. Local Tax Policy: Saskatoon launched public input on municipal property tax sharing between residential and non-residential classes ahead of 2029 reassessments. Growth Snapshot: Sweden reported stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth, driven by investment, exports and household spending. Armenia’s Economic Diplomacy: Armenia renamed its foreign ministry to fold trade and economic functions into international relations, while EU accession was said to be off the table for now. Infrastructure for Trade: Ghana’s Tema Port faces congestion and high logistics costs, with calls for road upgrades and better coordination to cut delays and boost exports. Court Reform in Kuwait: Kuwait plans specialized economic courts to clear commercial case backlogs and improve investor confidence.

Trade Diplomacy: India and Argentina doubled down on market access at the 4th Joint Trade Committee, pushing easier entry for Indian pharma and farm goods and working to upgrade Argentina’s pharma framework to cut barriers; bilateral trade topped $6.5bn in 2025. Energy & Sanctions: Iran’s economy is under strain as US pressure persists, with officials citing a 35% drop in exports/imports and inflation at 66%, while Tehran vows to resist sanctions and phase down dollar use. Disaster Economics: Nepal’s finance minister says flood reconstruction could cost $4–$5bn—nearly a tenth of GDP—after glacier-driven devastation damaged roads, bridges and hydropower. Macroeconomic Policy: IMF will replace Ethiopia’s forecasting model by Sept 2026, aiming for a more dynamic approach to manage transitions like exchange-rate and debt sustainability. Credit & Growth: Moody’s upgraded Nigeria’s outlook to positive, citing stronger growth and improved external buffers. Local Policy & Cost of Living: Puducherry raised LPG subsidies by ₹50 per cylinder for ration-card holders, while Nigeria’s CNG rollout faces renewed criticism over conversion scale. Tech & Labor: Indonesia urged AI literacy for workers as generative AI reshapes jobs and state revenue.

US-Canada Trade War: Trump’s 50% tariffs on $20bn of Canadian goods and threats to hit autos have triggered Canada’s retaliatory counter-tariffs, with experts warning the recession risk is higher for Canada given its smaller economy and heavy export dependence. Policy Response: Manitoba rolled out new tariff-relief support, including low-interest trade resilience loans and tax payment deferrals, while Ottawa is also pushing workforce and business support to absorb shocks. Negotiation Fallout: Canada’s chief trade negotiator Janice Charette disputes US claims about last-minute auto demands, as the dispute keeps widening. Economic Momentum (Canada): Statistics Canada says the economy rebounded sharply in Q2, but new tariff headwinds are now the big uncertainty. Regional Trade Push: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan aim to lift mutual trade to $3bn via logistics, industrial zones, and joint projects. Sovereign Credit Signal (China): China’s A+ rating with a stable outlook was reaffirmed by S&P, cited as recognition of fiscal resilience. Governance & Integrity (Nigeria): Tinubu ordered a forensic audit of IPPIS and federal systems after findings of ghost workers and control failures.

Central Banking Watch: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its key rate to 5% to keep inflation in check, even as growth stays weak; the peso slid to a new record low. Trade & Tariffs: Canada-U.S. tensions keep escalating as new U.S. 50% tariffs trigger Canadian retaliation, with analysts warning the damage could reshape long-term supply chains and even affect domestic politics. Fiscal Policy Process: Nigeria’s Finance Ministry is inviting public and stakeholder proposals for the 2027 Finance Bill, aiming to improve the fiscal framework and business climate. Poverty & Social Spending: A Nigerian economist says the $1bn social protection push won’t end poverty if it leans mainly on cash transfers, arguing for income-building outcomes. Skills & Workforce: Malaysia’s Sabah is pushing TVET and local talent pipelines beyond oil and gas, while Indonesia is funding recovery for 71 flood-hit training centers. Digital Economy Governance: Switzerland moves to regulate streaming price hikes, and Google adjusts EU spam enforcement to reduce antitrust risk. Energy & Regional Deals: Timor-Leste and Australia plan an investment and trade summit in Dili, and Qatar backs GCC cybersecurity coordination.

Canada-U.S. Trade Talks: Trade minister Dominic LeBlanc says the U.S. has withdrawn demands tied to French-language discoverability, labelling, and culture promotion, while Canada still awaits clarity on other sticking points as tariffs loom. Auto Sector Stakes: Canada’s ambassador warns any deal must protect a “robust” Canadian auto assembly and parts industry after Trump’s 50% auto-related tariff threats. Tariff Fallout on the Ground: Saskatchewan will levy 50% on U.S. alcohol starting Sept. 8, while the province forecasts an $825M deficit in its first-quarter update, citing higher oil prices but rising health and flood costs. Supply Chains & Infrastructure: Canada marked the grand opening of the CANXPORT facility in Prince Rupert with nearly $50M in federal support to boost export capacity. Global Trade Pressure: Industry groups warn the U.S.-Canada tariff fight could raise shipping and consumer costs and disrupt North American sourcing, especially for agriculture and consumer goods. China-U.S. Summit Mood: China’s foreign minister urged both sides to “overcome obstacles” ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, even as economic actions continue. Ukraine Economy Hit: Ukraine downgraded growth to 0.5% as Russian attacks and port blockades squeeze exports. Policy & Markets: Canada’s big banks project cautious optimism, while smaller firms report tariff-driven stress.

Monetary Policy: The Philippines’ central bank raised its policy rate 25 bps to 5% as inflation stayed above target, citing El Niño and oil-price risks. Central Banking & Markets: Bank of America flagged that only a few Asian economies still keep a positive rate gap versus the Fed, with the peso among currencies under pressure. Trade War Fallout: The US-Canada dispute keeps widening, with new 50% tariffs hitting Canadian alcohol and retaliation plans being adjusted after industry feedback. Geopolitical Economic Pressure: Iran’s officials condemned the US “economic terrorism” campaign as Washington targets oil exports and financial access, while the IMF said the global economy is resilient to the Iran energy shock but faces stubborn inflation and fiscal strain. Housing & Local Governance: UK Liberal Democrats criticized plans to let mayors override councils on major planning decisions, warning it could weaken local democracy and housing delivery. Climate & Disaster Response: Tanzania urged coastal fishers to prepare for possible severe El Niño impacts, while Nepal intensified flood rescue after hundreds were reported missing. Development & Infrastructure: Ghana’s vice president said recovery is incomplete until household conditions improve; Ghana’s tax forum (WATAF) heads to Accra in September; Nigeria pushed NLNG to convert gas flaring into domestic economic value as Train 7 nears completion.

US-Canada Trade War: USTR Jamieson Greer says there are “no open channels right now” with Canada as talks collapsed, while the tariff fight escalates with 50% duties on about $28B of Canadian goods and Canada’s dollar-for-dollar retaliation set for Sept. 8—raising pressure on prices and jobs. Consumer Costs: Analysts and business groups warn the dispute is already feeding through to everyday items, from steel and dairy to appliances and even toilet paper. Political Friction: Trump also floated renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America,” but economists stress the real risk is the tariff shock, not the headline stunt. Energy Leverage Debate: Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe rejected export tariffs on oil and potash, but signaled targeted retaliation on other sectors like alcohol. Broader Policy Spillover: A separate thread highlights how trade fights can spill into domestic rules—like Canada’s Online News Act—turning media sustainability into a bargaining chip. Middle East Sanctions: Iran urged the UN to reject US “economic terrorism,” warning of secondary-sanctions pressure on lawful trade. Asia Rates Watch: Bank of America notes only the Philippines, Indonesia and India still keep a positive policy-rate gap versus the Fed, as currency and inflation concerns shape decisions.

US–Canada Trade War: Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on $20B of US goods, including construction equipment parts, as the dispute spreads and raises costs for businesses and workers. North America Politics: Trump’s “Lake America” proposal for Lake Ontario adds a fresh, personal twist to the tariff fight, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford dismissing it as rhetoric. Iran Economic Pressure: The US launched “Operation Economic Outcast” to squeeze Iran via secondary sanctions and global financial links, while China warned it will protect its interests and avoid a wider economic conflict. Global Macro: IMF chief Georgieva said the world is caught between an oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz disruption and an AI investment boom, leaving outcomes uneven by country. Philippines Credit & Growth: Moody’s affirmed the Philippines’ Baa2 investment-grade rating with a stable outlook, as officials cite resilience amid infrastructure and external headwinds. E-commerce Regulation: Malaysia’s cabinet backed new rules for e-commerce platforms, including registration and tighter safety/halal compliance for electronics. Energy & Trade Routes: Oman and Iran are making progress on new Strait of Hormuz shipping rules, with an interim corridor discussed. South Africa–Brazil Minerals: Both countries plan deeper cooperation on critical minerals, aiming for more industrialisation and value-add rather than raw exports. Asia Trade Promotion: China-backed firms joined Cambodia’s Expo Series 2026 to boost trade and investment ties.

Canada–U.S. Trade War: Ottawa and Washington escalated fast after talks collapsed, with Canada announcing “dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods (15%/25%/50% across 700+ categories) starting Sept. 8, while the U.S. keeps pressing with new levies and political sparring that’s spilling into consumer prices and supply-chain planning. Political Fallout: The dispute is becoming a midterm issue in border states, with Republicans facing mounting voter backlash over economic uncertainty. Iran Sanctions Push: The U.S. launched “Operation Economic Outcast” to choke Iran’s financial lifelines, targeting shipping and enablers; China condemned the campaign and warned of retaliation, raising the risk of wider trade friction. Global Macro Backdrop: The IMF said the world economy is “storm-tossed” between energy shocks and trade tensions, but has held up better than feared, with AI investment acting as a partial offset. EU Trade Stance: Slovakia’s PM urged the EU to compete with China through “friendly competition” rather than new barriers. Financial Inclusion (Ghana): Research on immigrant traders in Ghana calls for pathways from informal trade to formal compliant activity and better access to finance. Investment & Trade Links (Somalia–China): Somalia hosted a China business forum focused on infrastructure, manufacturing, fisheries, agriculture, energy, and logistics. Philippines Credit: Moody’s affirmed the Philippines’ Baa2 investment-grade rating with a stable outlook, citing resilience amid headwinds.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” aiming to sever Iran’s financial lifelines via expanded secondary sanctions across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, while targeting nearly 60 Iran-linked entities; Iran warned of retaliation as the rial slid and shipping risks rose. US–Canada Trade War: Trump escalated threats after talks collapsed, moving toward 50% tariffs on cars, trucks and steel and prompting Canada to prepare retaliatory measures—raising costs for supply chains and jobs on both sides. EU Growth Resilience: Germany’s Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 0.3%, driven by stronger exports despite the Iran-war energy shock. Africa Economic Policy: UN ECA urged countries to treat health spending as productive investment, not just social cost, citing financing stress and execution gaps. South Africa Social Policy: The R370 SRD grant fight heads to appeal as the government challenges a ruling that treated it as effectively permanent, while the IEJ argues the “temporary” label is arbitrary. UK Critical Minerals: The UK will inject £71m into Tungsten West to reopen Devon’s Hemerdon mine, targeting jobs and defence/energy supply. Digital Infrastructure in Asia: Malaysia is pushing data-centre and low-altitude “unmanned valley” pilots to turn compute and connectivity into domestic value-added. Emerging Market Signals: Zambia’s post-election bond auction was oversubscribed by ~37%, signaling renewed investor confidence.

Iran Sanctions Escalation: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast,” aiming for “economic asphyxiation” by expanding secondary sanctions tied to Iran’s digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, plus designations of nearly 60 entities and vessels, with warnings that countries and firms continuing ties could face exclusion from the dollar system. US-Canada Trade War: Canada’s Mark Carney suspended talks with Washington after last-minute US demands, as the US moved ahead with 50% tariffs on about $20B of Canadian goods; Canada vows dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Sept 8, while Ontario Premier Doug Ford escalated rhetoric and warned of broader fallout for auto and energy supply chains. Cross-border Policy Friction: The dispute over Canada’s streaming rules and French-language protections remains a flashpoint in the tariff talks, with Carney and US officials trading accusations over what counts as “trade irritants.” Regional Trade Deals: Morocco and India pushed to broaden market access and diversify their trade basket, while Türkiye and Qatar set a $5B trade target, emphasizing logistics workarounds amid Hormuz disruption.

US-Iran Sanctions Escalation: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US is entering an “economic D-Day” against Iran, aiming to sever Tehran’s financial lifelines as the rial slides to record lows and Iran warns it could halt Gulf oil exports. Global Trade Risk: Analysts flag that the US may target Iran’s trade partners, raising the odds of blowback—especially if China is pulled into the sanctions net. US-Canada Trade War: Canada rejected a US deal over “last-minute” demands; Washington’s 50% tariffs on about $20bn of Canadian goods are now in force, with Ottawa promising dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Sept 8—pushing currency and raising costs for manufacturers and consumers. Regional Commerce Fixes: India and Morocco seek broader trade access and investment cooperation, while Bangladesh and India discuss reopening border haats and easing yarn restrictions. Policy for Growth Jobs: South Africa’s Ramaphosa urges a government-business pact to lift growth above 3% and create 1m jobs by 2030 amid rising unemployment. Business Support & Pricing: Bahrain cracks down on repackaged spoiled food; Russia drafts tax relief for Wildberries after drone attacks.

US-Canada Trade War: Mark Carney says Canada is “at war” after the US imposed 50% tariffs on about $20bn of Canadian goods; Canada vows “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation starting Sept. 8, targeting steel and dairy, while Trump claims Canada wants “benefits of being a state” without being one. Debt & Markets: With US debt at $40tn, Morgan Stanley warns the economy may “brake or break,” as Treasury bond and currency moves raise fears of financial repression and higher borrowing costs. Iran Economic Pressure: Iran’s security chief warns any country supporting the US “economic war” will be treated as an “act of war,” as Trump prepares a new sanctions push and Tehran warns of a boomerang effect. Policy & Investment: Saudi Arabia reports 1,730 investment opportunities across 15 sectors in 1H 2026, while Egypt says investor risk ratings fell to the lowest since 2014 after reforms. Philippines Growth Risks: DEPDev warns 2026 growth could weaken amid Middle East uncertainty, governance concerns, El Niño, and still-elevated inflation and borrowing costs.

US-Canada Trade War: Mark Carney says Washington’s last-minute changes were “unfair, uneconomic,” as the US imposed 50% tariffs on about US$20bn of Canadian goods; Canada will retaliate with “dollar-for-dollar” tariffs starting Sept 8, covering sectors from steel and dairy to appliances, electronics and pulp/paper. US-Iran Economic Pressure: Trump escalates “economic war” plans, with Iran warning neighbors that joining US pressure will make them enemies and threatening to block oil exports from the Gulf/Strait of Hormuz. India Space Economy: India’s space sector hits about US$9bn, with projections of US$40–45bn over the next decade, backed by a growing startup base and policy reforms. India Trade Outreach: US-India talks are “almost finalised in principle,” while India’s commerce chief begins a South America push to deepen ties with Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Energy & Agriculture (Nepal): Nepal moves ahead on opening Power Purchase Agreements, while Energy Minister Shrestha links irrigation to higher farm output and jobs, citing Sunsari–Morang’s large annual production value. Regional Integration (India): Karnataka’s coastal business groups welcome bringing the Mangaluru railway region under South Western Railway to reduce coordination gaps and speed upgrades.

Trade War Escalation (Canada–U.S.): Prime Minister Mark Carney says U.S. last-minute demands derailed talks, prompting Washington’s 50% tariffs on about $20–$28bn of Canadian goods and Canada’s “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation starting Sept. 8, with sectors like steel, dairy, appliances, pulp and paper, and electronics in the crosshairs. Sovereignty & Supply-Chain Stakes: Carney argues the U.S. tried to limit Canada’s ability to strike other trade deals, while premiers including B.C.’s David Eby and Ontario’s Doug Ford back Ottawa’s pushback. Debt & Rates Watch (U.S.): Investors are pressuring the Treasury as the national debt tops $40tn and long-end yields rise; the U.S. plans long-dated buybacks after yields jumped above 5.3% on 30-year Treasurys. Pakistan Economic Debate: Planning minister Ahsan Iqbal touts easing inflation and stronger exports/remittances, while former finance minister Asad Umar attacks fuel and tax policy as worsening poverty and growth. Digital Policy (Malaysia): Malaysia’s new e-commerce law aims to strengthen regulation and accountability for platforms and sellers. Energy & Geopolitics (Iran): Iran warns neighboring states that joining the U.S. “economic war” could make them targets and threatens oil exports through Hormuz. Infrastructure (Nigeria): Nigeria’s government approved NIGCOMSAT-2A and 2B satellites to expand broadband and connectivity.