AGP Executive Report

India–France Trade Push: Modi and Macron in Nice agreed to a high-level mechanism to double bilateral trade to USD 32bn in five years, pairing it with an Innovation Roadmap 2030, a joint AI working group, and UPI expansion to French airports. Digital Commerce & Trust: Kenya’s Visa research finds AI is widely used in shopping (89%), but only 29% trust it to complete transactions—highlighting a policy gap for safer digital payments. Public Finance Pressure: Bangladesh’s revenue collection is growing slower than GDP (revenue buoyancy average 0.93), pointing to untapped tax capacity as policymakers map FY26–29. Central Bank & Rates Watch: The US Fed’s new chair, Kevin Warsh, faces inflation at a three-year high while political pressure pushes for lower rates, setting up a tense FOMC decision. South Africa Migration Fallout: Officials say anti-migrant backlash is hurting South Africa’s brand and business opportunities abroad, with artists losing gigs and companies facing reputational damage. Customs Modernization: The Philippines is accelerating customs digitalization and selective AI use to cut delays and crack down on illicit online trade. Local Infrastructure & Housing: Nepal’s Bagmati unveiled its economic survey, while Kathmandu Metropolitan plans more street lighting and digital upgrades; Odisha is drafting affordable rental housing under PMAY-U 2.0 for migrant workers and students.

Global Energy Shock: An analysis warns the US-Iran escalation is turning into a prolonged energy, shipping, fertilizer and food shock that could weigh on growth through 2027 even if fighting eases. Indonesia Investor Woes: Indonesia’s rupiah slide and investor anxiety are tied to high energy costs, fuel/food spending pressures, tighter export controls, and central-bank independence concerns. US-India Trade Push at G7: Trump and Modi are set to discuss a potential trade deal at the G7, with US officials saying an agreement is possible but not expected to close there. UK Workers’ Rights Backlash: A UK minister argues new employment rights put the country on par with OECD peers, despite business warnings about higher hiring costs. Hong Kong Jobs Plan: Hong Kong’s first five-year blueprint aims to upgrade the economy, use AI for quality jobs, and address inequality ahead of a public consultation. New Zealand Budget Fight: National’s Nicola Willis says Labour has an $18.2b spending funding gap, while Labour counters amid election-year scrutiny. Regional Trade/Industry: Thailand is urged to close transshipment loopholes as US tariff talks intensify; Bangladesh’s Jamalpur Economic Zone faces delays because most firms lack gas connections. Cuba Reform Drive: Cuba’s president announces sweeping economic reforms to loosen state control and attract investment amid deep crisis and sanctions pressure.

US-Iran Energy Shock: An Antiwar.com analysis warns the Strait of Hormuz crisis is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial drag that could weigh on global growth through 2027. EU-India Trade Risk: The EU’s next Russia sanctions package would include some India-linked entities, raising hurdles for ratifying the EU-India trade deal. AI Export Controls: Reuters reports Amazon executives warned the Trump administration about Anthropic’s advanced models; the US then ordered Anthropic to block foreign access, prompting global shutdowns. Bangladesh Investment Push: Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury says business licences could be automatically approved if no response comes within seven days, aiming to cut red tape. Creative Economy Plan: Bangladesh targets creative industries to reach 1.5% of GDP and create 500,000 jobs, pairing tax and skills incentives with a 10-year strategy. Nepal Labor Rights: Nepal’s Supreme Court cleared the government’s move to dissolve trade unions in government agencies. Morocco Trade Strategy: Morocco is weighing a Chinese free-trade offer after ranking top in Africa for industrial performance, while economists warn informality remains structurally hard to formalize.

Energy Shock Watch: An Antiwar.com analysis says the US-Iran escalation is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial drag that could weigh on global growth through 2027. AI & Trade Controls: The US ordered Anthropic to shut off its most powerful Claude models (Fable 5 and Mythos 5) for foreign nationals, and Anthropic disabled access for all users to comply. UK Macro: UK GDP shrank 0.1% in April as higher energy costs from the Iran-linked disruption hit services and new construction. Pakistan Fiscal Tightrope: Pakistan unveiled an 18.77 trillion-rupee budget that raises defence spending, limits development, and leans on steep tax targets while keeping the IMF program on track. Pakistan External Accounts: Pakistan set a $42.4bn remittance target for FY26-27, even as it projects a wider current account deficit. EU-India Trade Risk: The EU’s next Russia sanctions package includes entities tied to India, potentially complicating ratification of the EU-India trade deal. Africa Governance: Nigeria’s UN appointment (Eziakonwa as Special Adviser on Africa) and an INEC trust push ahead of 2027 elections both underline how policy credibility is becoming an economic issue. Infrastructure for Growth: Somalia inaugurated Hirshabelle projects (new ministries and roads) aimed at jobs and trade connectivity.

EU-India Trade Under Strain: The EU’s next Russia sanctions package could include unnamed Indian entities, threatening ratification of the EU-India trade deal and raising uncertainty for firms tied to drones, energy, crypto, and trade. US-Iran Talks Fog: Conflicting claims from Washington and Tehran keep a potential peace deal elusive, with Trump signaling skepticism and Pakistan’s PM saying a final text is already reached. Cuba Reform Push: Cuba announced wide-ranging economic reforms—more private activity, tourism openings, and less state import intermediation—after new US pressure on CUPET. Pakistan Budget Shock: Pakistan’s finance minister unveiled a budget that boosts defense spending while trimming development, aiming for 4% growth and 8.2% inflation. Digital Payments Leap: Sri Lanka’s mCash is integrating GovPay to let citizens pay thousands of government services, from traffic fines to taxes, via mobile money. Gig Work Protections: The ILO adopted the first global convention for platform workers, extending labor protections beyond contractor status. Trade & Tech Diplomacy: Malaysia urged wider 5G adoption to lift productivity, while Kazakhstan and Sweden set up a bilateral trade-investment commission.

G7 Trade Tensions: China’s vice premier urged economic cooperation and “inclusive growth” in a Macron-hosted call as G7 talks near and the EU weighs tougher trade steps over low-priced Chinese exports. Central Banking: The ECB raised rates by 25 bps to 2.25%, saying the move is enough for now despite renewed euro-area inflation, while policymakers like Joachim Nagel kept July options open amid energy-driven price risks. UK Defence Fallout: Britain saw a fresh leadership shock as the defence secretary and armed forces minister quit over a dispute on military funding, escalating pressure on Prime Minister Starmer. Eurozone Inflation Watch: Nagel warned energy costs are feeding broader inflation, keeping the next rate decision data-dependent. Nigeria Industrial Push: Nigeria commissioned an automotive training centre in Zamfara, graduating 100 youths in mechatronics to support CNG and petrol vehicle repair and attract investment. Regional Trade Friction: ECOWAS ministers warned that bilateral deals outside the customs framework could fracture the bloc’s bargaining power as intra-regional trade stays below 15%. Energy Sanctions: Cuba condemned new US sanctions on state oil firm Cupet as further tightening of an “economic and energy blockade.”

Critical Minerals & Industrial Policy: UNCTAD’s latest trade update flags soaring demand for copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and rare earths, but also heavy supply concentration in a few countries—raising risks for developing exporters that mainly ship raw material. EU Tax Enforcement: A new EU report says illicit cigarettes now exceed 10% of consumption, driven largely by counterfeiting, reopening Brussels’ push for faster crackdowns. Moldova Economic Reset: Moldova is consulting a 2027 fiscal policy aimed at simpler, more competitive taxes—cutting wage tax rates, speeding VAT refunds, and zero-rating reinvested profits—while also boosting natural gas security stocks and negotiating visa-free travel with Tunisia. Trade Talks & G7 Pressure: Canada’s Carney joined a G7 call with China on global imbalances; meanwhile, Canada’s LeBlanc expects side deals alongside CUSMA talks as Trump signals uncertainty over renewal. Energy & Sentiment: Thailand’s consumer confidence fell to a 42-month low amid Middle East tensions and high energy costs. Pakistan Growth Snapshot: Pakistan’s Economic Survey pegs FY2025-26 growth at 3.7% and economy size above $452bn, with reserves and tax base improving. Defense Funding Shock (UK): UK Defence Secretary John Healey resigned over a plan he says falls short as threats rise, deepening Starmer’s political strain.

Middle East Trade & Security: US and Iran traded airstrikes for a second day, with Kuwait closing airspace and Bahrain sounding missile alerts, pushing oil prices higher and raising risks for regional shipping and energy costs. South Asia Budgets & Governance: Pakistan’s NEC approved a 2026-27 development budget of 3.669tn rupees and set 4% growth, while its Economic Survey flags missed targets and a May inflation spike. South Asia Finance Politics: Nepal’s finance minister, Swarnim Wagle, welcomed investigations over alleged budget errors and challenged claims of an EV information leak. Bangladesh Fiscal Push: Bangladesh’s finance team is preparing an expansionary FY27 budget aimed at building a “welfare state,” alongside a new 3R recovery plan. Trade & Investment Deals: Saudi Arabia lifted a roughly five-year Lebanese import ban, signaling support for Beirut’s recovery; Indonesia and Canada explored deeper cooperation after ICA-CEPA. Policy for Competitiveness: Bulgaria approved an electricity compensation scheme for energy-intensive firms, tying support to decarbonization and efficiency investments. AI for Small Business: New Zealand will expand AI-powered support for small firms via AcceleratorNZ and mentor tools. Global Finance Risk: South Africa’s central bank warned rising developed-economy debt and refinancing could threaten global financial stability.

Trade Shock in North America: Trump said he’s “not looking to renew” CUSMA, warning the U.S. doesn’t need Canada or Mexico and setting up a July 1 fight over autos and other key sectors. Central Banking Watch: Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, sounding “dovish” while economists say it kept “wiggle room” amid duelling risks from weak growth and sticky inflation. Ghana Growth Update: Ghana’s Q1 2026 GDP rose 6.4%, led by services (ICT up 25.2%) and a rebound in industry from mining and oil recovery. Iran Escalation & Sanctions: U.S. Treasury sanctioned Iran-linked procurement networks under “Economic Fury” as strikes and counterstrikes threaten to derail ceasefire talks. AIIB Budget Support: Bangladesh signed a $250m AIIB loan for economic management and governance, aiming to protect spending and stabilize the economy amid geopolitical pressures. Regional Trade Facilitation: Kenya’s business council and consulate pledged to cut barriers to intra-EAC trade, targeting faster cross-border commerce at Namanga. Infrastructure Execution: Ghana replaced the contractor on the Bogoso–Prestea road and requested 1,000 more road-sector staff to fix supervision gaps. EV Charging Economics (UK): A new report projects EV charging’s added value could reach £15.5bn by 2035, boosting jobs across the supply chain.

Middle East Shock to Food Prices: The World Food Programme warns the Iran conflict could push 45 million more people into severe food insecurity by June, as higher fuel costs and disrupted trade hit vulnerable countries, with UN funding cuts forcing aid rationing. Geopolitics Meets Markets: Fresh US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and wider regional retaliation keep pressure on energy and shipping, while analysts flag knock-on effects for growth and public finances. Oil Price Spillover for India: India faces a prolonged oil-price hit as analysts cut growth forecasts and the rupee comes under strain; refiners are shifting supply toward Russia and other sources to plug gaps. Central Banking Watch: The Bank of Japan is widely expected to lift rates toward 1% to curb inflation risks tied to crude-price pressures. EU Sanctions and Trade Friction: The EU is expanding sanctions pressure on Russia’s war economy, including energy and crypto-related measures, while drug-trafficking routes and violence remain a growing policy concern. UK Cost-of-Living Jobs Push: Major retailers urge the UK government to act on youth unemployment, warning the “ladder of opportunity” is wobbling. Kenya Ebola Quarantine Row: Protests over a proposed US-funded Ebola quarantine facility are turning into a sovereignty and governance dispute, with courts ordering disclosure of deal details.

Middle East spillovers: The Iran war is pushing up food and fuel costs and disrupting global trade, with the World Food Programme warning tens of millions could face severe food insecurity as US funding cuts force aid rationing. Energy chokepoint risk: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising “very meaningfully,” but normal flows could take months to restore—keeping inflation pressure and supply-chain stress front and center. South Asia pressure: India’s opposition urges the government to absorb higher crude costs instead of passing them to consumers, as oil-price shocks and subsidy cuts threaten demand and growth. Bangladesh support & jobs: Japan signed a $312m concessional loan to bolster energy security and resilience; meanwhile, Bangladesh’s Startup Bangladesh has invested Tk 1.09b in 36 startups, and the labour minister called for stronger regional cooperation to tackle unemployment and skills gaps. Policy and state control: Armenia’s government is drafting a resolution to nationalize Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) and move it to state control. IMF backing: Nigeria says the IMF endorsed its reforms under Tinubu, citing improved macro stability and FX operations. Regional integration push: ASEAN leaders, including Cambodia’s Hun Manet, urged members to resist fragmentation and deepen economic integration amid global instability.

FX & Inflation Watch (Nigeria): The naira opened the week weaker across official and parallel markets, with NAFEX down to about N1,362.84/$1 as traders pointed to tighter compliance under the CBN’s updated Foreign Exchange Manual. Energy & Governance (Nigeria): President Tinubu swore in a new Power minister and a Foreign Affairs minister of state after resignations, as the administration pushes reforms aimed at stabilizing electricity supply and restoring investor confidence. Education Sector Reform (Zimbabwe): Zimbabwe’s higher-education minister ordered structural and digital changes at TESC and ZIMCHE, including budget “Blue Book” listing, HR systems, and salary reviews to curb inefficiencies and brain drain. Trade & Jobs (UK): The CBI warned UK unemployment could hit 5.5%—the highest since 2015—citing weaker growth and Iran-linked energy and inflation pressure. Global Trade Logistics: Air cargo got its moment at IATA, with executives arguing it’s profitable and essential to global supply chains despite mounting structural strain. Middle East Risk: Iran-Israel strikes resumed after a ceasefire, raising the odds of renewed regional escalation and fresh economic shock. Local Enterprise Support (South Africa): A nationwide campaign will help spaza shops access the R500m support fund, targeting licensing and compliance gaps.

Regional Trade & Connectivity: Georgia, Türkiye and Azerbaijan wrapped a 10th trilateral foreign ministers meeting in Istanbul and signed the “Istanbul Declaration,” with leaders pointing to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway as a driver for trade and economic progress. Food Security & Energy Risk: FAO warned that Strait of Hormuz disruptions are a global fertilizer and production shock, urging countries to keep agricultural input trade open and use fertilizers efficiently. Oil Market Reality Check: Opec+ raised quotas again, but analysts say delivery constraints mean the move is more symbolic than supply-changing amid Hormuz-linked logistics strain. Monetary Policy Watch: India’s RBI held rates at 5.25% and signaled a data-dependent stance as fuel, freight and monsoon risks threaten inflation beyond isolated price spikes. Trade Policy: Bangladesh’s commerce minister said the trade deficit widened by about $8bn over five fiscal years to $24.16bn, citing higher import costs and weak export growth. AI for Business: The UK announced £200m to speed AI adoption by firms, including BridgeAI expansion and AI Growth Zones for local workers and businesses.

Middle East Risk Premium: Israel and Iran traded retaliatory strikes again, threatening to unravel a fragile truce and pushing Brent crude higher, rattling global markets and adding inflation risk. FX & Rates Watch: South Korea’s central bank and finance ministry warned of excessive FX volatility and one-way moves, pointing to speculative offshore NDF activity as the won weakens. South Asia Growth Strategy: Vietnam’s deputy central bank governor said monetary policy room is narrow, so the country will lean more on targeted expansionary fiscal policy to hit growth while keeping inflation controlled. Energy Efficiency Push: Türkiye targets $20B+ in energy-efficiency investments by 2030, aiming to cut energy use and emissions. Trade & Integration: WTO pledged continued Aid for Trade support for Bangladesh to boost infrastructure, productive sectors, and export diversification. Regional Diplomacy With Economic Stakes: ASEAN Future Forum 2026 in Hanoi will focus on growth models, AI, energy security, and value-chain participation. Housing Supply Lesson: Ireland’s housing warning from 2014 is resurfacing as shortages persist, with renewed debate over “help to buy” versus “help to build.”

Trade & Logistics Tech: India’s Home Minister Amit Shah will launch the Land Port Management System, a digital platform to integrate land-port cargo and passenger processing, cut border delays, and enable single-window clearances. UAE Trade Performance: Dubai’s DIEZ logged record 2025 trade of about Dh491bn (+46%), boosting Dubai’s non-oil trade share to 16% and underscoring continued goods-flow momentum. Middle East Energy Shock: With the Israel-Iran conflict nearing 100 days, global institutions warn of weaker growth, higher inflation, and supply-chain damage—raising pressure on consumer costs and shipping risk. Jobs & Politics in the US: New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani says Democrats are losing working-class voters by not focusing enough on housing, healthcare, and grocery costs. Canada Growth Wobble: Canada’s two-quarter GDP decline revives “technical recession” talk, though economists urge looking beyond GDP to unemployment and broader conditions. Iraq Investment Push: Iraq’s new oil minister promises better terms for foreign firms, aiming to expand production, end gas flaring, and improve export infrastructure. AI & Copyright Policy: A push for collective licensing is gaining traction as AI adoption scales and regulators demand clearer, lawful access to content.

Trade Diplomacy: India and the US are racing to wrap the first phase of a bilateral trade deal by mid-July, with a July 22 tariff deadline adding urgency. Energy & Cost of Living: India’s domestic LPG supply cost has jumped above ₹1,600 per cylinder after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, but the government keeps consumer prices capped—₹29 hike announced, with PMUY beneficiaries effectively paying ₹642. Geopolitics & Growth Risks: The US-Iran confrontation is driving a global energy shock, raising recession risk as trade routes and commodity flows get hit. Capital Flows & Markets: Early signs of AI trade cooling in the US could slow foreign selling and potentially bring some FPI back to India, as analysts watch rupee pressure and RBI/government measures. Labor & Fiscal Pressure: Trinidad and Tobago faces renewed scrutiny over supplementary spending to settle long-delayed wage obligations, with economists warning borrowing could worsen fiscal strain. Migration Politics: South Africa vows “no shutdown” on June 30 as xenophobic tensions rise around undocumented migrants, while Pakistan’s interior minister continues shuttle diplomacy tied to US-Iran talks. Regional Economy & Infrastructure: Pakistan’s Sukkur Barrage canal system is short on irrigation water, threatening Kharif crops and exposing governance and distribution fault lines.